000 AXPZ20 KNHC 060856 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Sat Jul 6 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0830 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Barbara IS centered near 18.6N 137.5W at 06/0900 UTC, moving W at 13 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Barbara is expcted to continue moving westward and weaken, and become a post-tropical cyclone later today. Scattered showers are within 120 nm north of the center. See latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP2/ WTPZ22 KNHC or https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP2.shtml for additional details. A large area of showers and thunderstorms is associated with a low centered near 15N114W and a trough extending SW to a second low near 10N122W. Scatterometer data shows 35-45 kt gale force winds in the NE semicircle of the low near 15N114W. A gale warning is in effect, and environmental conditions are conducive for development into a tropical storm within the next 12 to 24 hours. This system is expected to consolidate and move NW during the next two days, with storm force winds and large seas on the NE side of the low. Please see the latest eastern North Pacific high seas forecast HSFEP2 KNHC for more information. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 98W, moving W around 15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 05N to 08N between 94W and 101W, and from 12N to 15N between 95W and 99W. The axis of a tropical wave is near 114W, and is the subject of storm warning. See the Special Features section for more details. The axis of a tropical wave is near 122W, moving W around 15 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is from 08N to 12N between 117W and 124W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 07N96W to 15N114W to 10N122W to 11N129W. In addition to convection associated with tropical waves, cattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted within 120 nm south and 60 nm north of the axis between 93W and 125W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... The gradient between a ridge west of Baja California and a trough along the Gulf of California will maintain moderate NW to N winds over the offshores of Baja. Seas will be in the 6-7 ft range in southwesterly swell. Winds and seas will gradually diminish SW of Cabo San Lucas Sun and Mon as a storm force low moves away from the region. Otherwise, a low pressure will move across the Guerrero offshore waters Wed night into Thu night with strong winds and seas to 8 ft. Gulf of California: Gentle to moderate winds will prevail over the northern and central Gulf of California this weekend, with mainly gentle winds over the southern Gulf. Southwest gap winds may pulse to fresh in the northern Gulf Sun night and Mon night. Gulf of Tehuantepec: Moderate to fresh nocturnal pulsing of northerly gap winds will continue through Mon. A low pressure will move across the southern offshore waters Tue night into Wed night with strong winds and seas to 8 ft. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to fresh offshore winds will prevail north of the monsoon trough, while gentle to moderate S to SW winds are expected south of the trough the next few days. Long period S-SW swell will reach the Galapagos Islands this weekend. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the special features section for more information on Tropical Storm Barbara and a storm force low with potential to become a tropical cyclone well off the S coast of Mexico. The gradient between Tropical Storm Barbara and high pressure north of the area is supporting moderate to fresh winds north of 20N. Swell from Barbara is supporting 8 ft or greater seas over much of the forecast area west of 120W. The swell will gradually subside this weekend as Barbara weakens and moves west-northwest. Cross-equatorial southerly swell will prevail the next couple of days south of 10N west of 104W, with associated seas of 8 to 10 ft. Wave heights will subside below 8 ft Sun as the swell decays. $$ Mundell