000 AXPZ20 KNHC 060255 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Sat Jul 6 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0245 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Barbara is centered near 18.6N 136.2W at 06/0300 UTC, moving W at 12 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Barbara is expected to continue to track west with an increase in forward speed over the next 48 hours. Continued weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Barbara is forecast to become a post-tropical cyclone on Saturday. Isolated showers are from 20N to 29N between 126W and 135W. See latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP2/ WTPZ22 KNHC or https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP2.shtml for additional details. A large area of disturbed weather several hundred miles southwest of Jalisco, Mexico is associated with a tropical wave with axis along 112W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 12N to 16N between 109W and 112W and from 11N to 13N between 113W and 117W. A 1006 mb low pressure is associated with the wave. Gale force winds are also associated with this broad area of low pressure. Environmental conditions are becoming more conducive for development, and a tropical depression or a tropical storm is expected to form this weekend as the system moves west-northwestward at about 15 mph, remaining well off the coast of Mexico. Please see the latest eastern North Pacific high seas forecast HSFEP2 KNHC for more information. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 95W, moving W around 5 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 05N to 09N between 92W and 100W. The axis of the tropical wave is near 112W. See the Special Features section for more on this feature. The axis of a tropical wave is near 120W, moving W around 10 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 07N to 11N between 119W and 123W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 07N78W to 08N90W to 09N100W to 14N112W to 10N116W to 12N129W. The ITCZ extends from 09N135W to beyond 08N140W. For convection information, see the special features and tropical waves sections. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... The pressure gradient between a ridge west of Baja California and a trough along the Gulf of California will maintain moderate NW to N winds over the offshores of Baja. Seas will be in the 6 to 7 ft range in southwesterly swell likely from distant Hurricane Barbara. Higher winds and seas are forecast for a portion of the offshore waters southwest of Cabo San Lucas Sat through Sun as a possible tropical cyclone moves NW away from the region. Otherwise, a low pressure will move across the Guerrero offshore waters Wed night into Thu night with strong winds and seas to 8 ft. Gulf of California: Gentle to moderate winds will prevail over the northern and central Gulf of California this weekend, with mainly gentle winds over the southern Gulf. Southwest gap winds may pulse to fresh in the northern Gulf Sun night and Mon night. Gulf of Tehuantepec: Moderate to fresh nocturnal pulsing of northerly gap winds will continue through Mon. A low pressure will move across the southern offshore waters Tue night into Wed night with strong winds and seas to 8 ft. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Strong offshore winds will become fresh across the Gulf of Papagayo Sat. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh offshore winds will prevail north of the monsoon trough, while gentle to moderate S to SW winds are expected south of the trough the next few days. Long period S-SW swell will move into the waters between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands this weekend. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the special features section for more information on Tropical Storm Barbara and a low with potential to become a tropical cyclone well off the S coast of Mexico. The gradient between Tropical Storm Barbara and high pressure north of the area is supporting moderate to fresh winds north of 20N. Swell from Barbara is supporting 8 ft seas or greater across much of the forecast area west of 120W. The swell will gradually subside through the weekend as Barbara weakens and moves west-northwest. Cross-equatorial southerly swell will prevail for the next couple days south of 10N and west of 104W, with associated seas of 8 to 10 ft. Wave heights will subside below 8 ft by Sun as the swell decays. $$ NR/SK