000 AXPZ20 KNHC 052204 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Fri Jul 5 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Barbara is centered near 18.6N 134.7W at 05/2100 UTC, moving WNW at 11 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt. Barbara is expected to make a turn towards the west with an increase in forward speed over the next 48 hours. Continued weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Barbara is forecast to become a post-tropical cyclone on Saturday. Scattered moderate convection is to the NE of the storm center from 19N to 26N between 129W and 133W. See latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP2/ WTPZ22 KNHC or https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP2.shtml for additional details. A large area of disturbed weather several hundred miles southwest of Jalisco, Mexico is associated with a tropical wave with axis along 111W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 08N to 20N between 105W and 111W and from 08N to 14N between 111W and 117W. A 1006 mb low pressure is also associated with the wave. This broad area of low pressure is already producing gale force winds, but still lacks a well-defined center. Environmental conditions are becoming more conducive for development, and a tropical depression or a tropical storm is expected to form this weekend as the system moves west- northwestward at about 15 mph, remaining well off the coast of Mexico. Please see the latest eastern North Pacific high seas forecast HSFEP2 KNHC for more information. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 91W, moving W around 5 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 05N to 08N between 89W and 93W. The axis of a tropical wave is near 100W, moving W around 10 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 07N to 10N between 95W and 102W. The axis of the tropical wave is near 111W. See the Special Features section for more on this feature. The axis of a tropical wave is near 119W, moving W around 10 kt. This wave is embedded in a large area of scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 05N to 12N between 115W and 125W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 1009 mb low pres over NW Colombia near 08N78W to 08N100W to 1006 mb low pres near 14N111W to 09N120W to 10N126W. The ITCZ extends from 09N135W to beyond 07N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 05N to 11N between 90W and 103W, and from 07N to 17N between 108W and 123W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... The gradient between a ridge west of Baja California and a trough along the Gulf of California is maintaining moderate NW to N winds off the coast of Baja California. Seas are in the 6 to 7 ft range in southwesterly swell likely from distant Hurricane Barbara. Seas southwest of Cabo San Lucas are forecast to reach 8 to 11 ft by early Sat as a broad area of low pressure moves NW away from the offshore waters. Seas associated with this system will subside early on Sun as it continues to moves further away in a NW track. Gulf of California: Gentle to moderate winds will prevail over the northern and central Gulf of California this weekend, with mainly gentle winds over the southern Gulf. Southwest gap winds may pulse to fresh in the northern Gulf Sun night and Mon night. Gulf of Tehuantepec: Moderate to fresh nocturnal pulsing of northerly gap winds will continue through the weekend. Winds are expected to diminish over the Gulf early next week as the local pressure gradient relaxes. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Strong offshore winds will become fresh across the Gulf of Papagayo Sat. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh offshore winds will prevail north of the monsoon trough, while gentle to moderate S to SW winds are expected south of the trough the next few days. Long period S-SW swell will move into the waters between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands this weekend. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the special features section for more information on Tropical Storm Barbara and on the potential for tropical cyclogenesis well off the S coast of Mexico. The gradient between Tropical Storm Barbara and high pressure north of the area is supporting moderate to fresh winds north of 20N. Swell from Barbara is supporting 8 ft seas or greater across much of the forecast area west of 120W. The swell will gradually subside through the weekend as Barbara weakens and moves west-northwest. Cross-equatorial southerly swell will prevail for the next couple days south of 10N and west of 104W, with associated seas of 8 to 10 ft. Wave heights will subside below 8 ft by Sun as the swell decays. $$ NR/SK