000 AXPZ20 KNHC 051605 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1437 UTC Fri Jul 5 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1530 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Newly downgraded Tropical Storm Barbara centered near 18.4N 133.6W at 05/1500 UTC moving NW at 11 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 991 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 60 kt with gusts to 85 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed in the NE quadrant within 120 nm. Barbara is moving toward the NW, and a turn toward the WNW and W is expected during the next day or two. Continued weakening is forecast for Barbara during the next 48 hours, and Barbara is forecast to become a post- tropical cyclone by Saturday night. See latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP2/ WTPZ22 KNHC or https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP2.shtml for additional details. A large area of disturbed weather associated with a tropical wave located several hundred miles south of the southwestern coast of Mexico along 99W/100W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 08N to 18N between 105W and 112W. This system is showing signs of organization, and a broad surface low has developed. Environmental conditions are conducive for further development, and a tropical depression is likely to form this weekend. A gale warning has been issued in anticipation of winds reaching gale force on Sat as the low intensifies. Please see the latest eastern North Pacific high seas forecast HSFEP2 KNHC for more information. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 91W, moving W around 10 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 04N to 07N between 86W and 91W. The axis of a tropical wave is near 99W, moving W around 15 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 06N to 10N between 94W and 100W. The axis of the tropical wave is near 99W/100W. See the Special Features section for more on this feature. The axis of a tropical wave is near 118W, moving W around 15 kt. This wave is embedded in a large area of scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 05N to 12N between 112W and 124W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from low pres 1009 mb over NW Colombia near 08N75W to 07N80W to 08N96W to low pres 1007 mb near 13N110W to 09N121W to 10N126W. The ITCZ extends from 08.5N134W to beyond 07N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 04N to 07N between 77W and 82W, from 07N to 09N between 86W and 91W, from 06N to 10N between 94W and 100W, from 08N to 18N between 105W and 112W and from 05N to 12N from 112W and 124W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... The gradient between a ridge west of Baja California and a trough along the Gulf of California is maintaining moderate NW to N winds off the coast of Baja California. Earlier altimeter data off the coast of Baja California Sur showed 7 to 8 ft seas over the offshore waters, likely in southerly swell from distant Hurricane Barbara. Seas will subside today as Barbara continues moving NW away from the region. Gulf of California: Gentle to moderate winds will prevail over the northern and central Gulf of California this weekend, with mainly gentle winds over the southern Gulf. Southwest gap winds may pulse to fresh in the northern Gulf Sun night and Mon night. Gulf of Tehuantepec: Moderate to fresh nocturnal pulsing of northerly gap winds will continue through the weekend. Winds are expected to diminish over the Gulf early next week as the local pressure gradient relaxes. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Strong offshore winds will become fresh across the Gulf of Papagayo Sat. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate offshore winds will prevail north of the monsoon trough, while gentle to moderate S to SW winds are expected south of the trough the next few days. Long period S-SW swell will move into the waters between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands this weekend. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the special features section for more information on Hurricane Barbara. Scatterometer data shows a broad area of fresh to strong winds south of the monsoon trough between 105W and 120W. Altimeter data and the latest wave model guidance indicate seas to 10 ft in this region. Please see the special features section for more information on the potential for tropical cyclogenesis well off the S coast of Mexico. The gradient between Hurricane Barbara and high pressure north of the area is supporting moderate to fresh winds north of 20N. Swell from Hurricane Barbara is supporting 8 ft seas or greater across much of the forecast area west of 120W. The swell will gradually subside through the weekend as Barbara weakens and moves west-northwest. Cross-equatorial southerly swell will prevail for the next couple days south of 10N and west of 104W, with associated seas of 8 to 10 ft. Wave heights will subside below 8 ft by Sun as the swell decays. $$ CAM