000 AXPZ20 KNHC 050940 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Fri Jul 5 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0830 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Barbara centered near 17.7N 132.6W at 05/0900 UTC moving NW at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 980 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 70 kt with gusts to 85 kt. A west-northwest to northwest motion is anticipated today, followed by a turn toward the west Saturday. Rapid weakening is expected, and Barbara is forecast to weaken to a tropical storm later today and become a post-tropical cyclone on Saturday. See latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP2/ WTPZ22 KNHC or https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP2.shtml for additional details. A large area of disturbed weather associated with a tropical wave is located several hundred miles south of the southwestern coast of Mexico. This system is showing signs of organization, and a broad surface low has developed. Environmental conditions are conducive for further development, and a tropical depression is likely to form this weekend. A gale warning has been issued in anticipation of winds reaching gale force as the low intensifies. Please see the latest eastern North Pacific high seas forecast HSFEP2 KNHC for more information. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 90W, moving W around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N to 09N between 86W and 90W. The axis of a tropical wave is near 98W, moving W around 15 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 07N to 10N between 95W and 100W. The axis of a tropical wave is near 108W, moving W around 15 kt. Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is noted from 10N to 15N between 105W and 110W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 08N to 11N between 107W and 115W. The axis of a tropical wave is near 118W, moving W around 15 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 06N to 10N between 115W and 122W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Panama near 08N78W to 07N81W to 11N109W to 09N126W. The ITCZ extends from 09N133W to 07N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted within 60 nm of the monsoon trough between 91W and 94W, within 120 nm south of the monsoon trough between 112W and 115W, and within 180 nm south of the monsoon trough west of 134W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... The gradient between a ridge west of Baja California and a trough along the Gulf of California is maintaining moderate NW to N winds off the coast of Baja California. Earlier altimeter data off the coast of Baja California Sur showed 7-8 ft seas over the offshore waters, likely in southerly swell from distant Hurricane Barbara. Seas will subside today as Barbara continues moving NW away from the region. Gulf of California: Gentle to moderate winds will prevail over the northern and central Gulf of California this weekend, with mainly gentle winds over the southern Gulf. Southwest gap winds may pulse to fresh in the northern Gulf Sun night and Mon night. Gulf of Tehuantepec: Moderate to fresh nocturnal pulsing of northerly gap winds will continue through the weekend. Winds are expected to diminish over the Gulf early next week as the local pressure gradient relaxes. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh offshore winds will prevail across the Gulf of Papagayo through Sun. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate offshore winds will prevail north of the monsoon trough, while gentle to moderate S to SW winds are expected south of the trough the next few days. Long period S-SW swell will move into the waters between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands this weekend. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the special features section for more information on Hurricane Barbara. Scatterometer data shows a broad area of fresh to strong winds south of the monsoon trough between 105W and 116W. Altimeter data and the latest wave model guidance indicate seas to 10 ft. Please see the special features section for more information on the potential for tropical cyclogenesis in this region. The gradient between Hurricane Barbara and high pressure north of the area is supporting moderate to fresh winds north of 20N. Swell from Hurricane Barbara is supporting 8 ft seas or greater across much of the forecast area west of 120W. The swell will gradually subside through the weekend as Barbara weakens and moves west-northwest. Cross-equatorial southerly swell will prevail for the next couple days south of 05N and west of 100W, with seas of 7-10 ft. Wave heights will subside below 8 ft by Sun as the swell decays. $$ Mundell