000 AXPZ20 KNHC 041605 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1413 UTC Thu Jul 4 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1510 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Barbara centered near 16.0N 130.0W at 04/1500 UTC moving WNW at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 960 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 100 kt with gusts to 120 kt. Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is noted in the NW semicircle within 90 nm and in the SE semicircle within 45 nm. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is observed elsewhere in the NW semicircle within 180 nm and in the SE semicircle within 120 nm. A WNW to NW motion is anticipated during the next day or so, followed by a turn toward the W on Saturday. Barbara is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Rapid weakening is forecast, and Barbara is expected to weaken to a tropical storm on Friday and become a post-tropical cyclone on Saturday.See NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO Headers MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC for more details or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP2.shtml for additional details. Low pressure measuring 1008 mb has formed along a tropical wave near 10N103W. Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is seen from 08N to 10N between 101W and 106W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is found elsewhere from 06N to 13N between 99W and 106W and from 15N to 17N between 99W and 104W. Environmental conditions are forecast to be favorable for development of this system during the next several days, and a tropical depression is likely to form by the end of the weekend. This disturbance is expected to move WNW between 10 and 15 kt well off the coast of Mexico during the next several days. Please see the latest eastern North Pacific tropical weather outlook for more information. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 85W N of 04N, moving W around 15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted over forecast waters from 07N to 10N between 84W and 87W. The axis of a tropical wave is near 95W of 04N, moving W around 15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection was noted from 07N to 09N between 94W and 97W. The axis of a tropical wave is near 103W. Low pressure has developed along the wave axis. Please see the special features section for more on the potential of tropical cyclogenesis with this low. The axis of a tropical wave is near 114W, moving W around 10 kt. This wave is embedded in a large area of convection spanning from 04N to 11N between 106W and 120W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from low pres 1007 mb over NE Colombia near 10N75W to 08N80W to low pressure 1008 mb near 10N103W to 09N109W to 10N120W, then resumes from 10N130W to 07N136W to beyond 07N140W. Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection was noted from 06N to 08N between 108W and 115W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection was present elsewhere from 04N to 11N between 106W and 120W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection was found from 07N to 09N between 94W and 97W and within 90 nm either side of a line from 11N124W to 07N133W to 06N140W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... The pressure gradient between a persistent high pressure ridge to the northwest of Baja California and a low pressure trough along the Gulf of California will support moderate to locally fresh N to NW winds off the coast of Baja California through Fri. Southerly swell generated by Hurricane Barbara will maintain seas to 8 ft across the Baja California Sur offshore waters through Thu, then subside by Thu night. This long period swell will generate high surf and strong rip currents along the coast of Mexico from Baja California Norte to Cabo Corrientes through Thu. Gulf of California: Gentle to moderate winds will prevail over the northern and central Gulf of California for the next several days, with mainly gentle winds over the southern Gulf. Southwest gap winds may strengthen to fresh speeds over the northern Gulf Sun night and Mon. Gulf of Tehuantepec: Light and variable winds will prevail today. Moderate to fresh nocturnal pulsing of gap winds will begin tonight and continue through the upcoming weekend. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Strong offshore winds will prevail across the Gulf of Papagayo through Sat, then remain fresh into early next week. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate offshore winds will prevail north of the monsoon trough, while gentle to moderate S to SW winds are expected south of the monsoon trough for the next few days. A set of long period S to SW swell will move into the waters between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands this weekend. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the special features section for more information on Hurricane Barbara. Please see the special features section for more information on the potential for tropical cyclogenesis well southwest of the southern coast of Mexico. High pressure measuring 1024 mb is centered N of the area near 35N135W. The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and Hurricane Barbara is supporting moderate to fresh winds over forecast waters N of 10N and W of 120W. Swell generated by Hurricane Barbara is producing seas of 8 ft or greater over much of the forecast waters west of 120W. Cross-equatorial SE to SW swell will prevail for the next several days across the waters south of 05N and west of 100W with seas generally 7 to 10 ft. Wave heights will subside by Sun as swell decays over the southern waters. $$ CAM