000 AXPZ20 KNHC 040849 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0840 UTC Thu Jul 4 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0840 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Barbara centered near 15.4N 129.2W at 04/0900 UTC moving WNW at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 956 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 105 kt with gusts to 130 kt. Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted within 50 nm of the center of Barbara. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection was noted elsewhere within 180 nm N and 120 nm S semicircles. Barbara will continue to move on a WNW track while continuing to weaken. The current forecast is for Barbara to weaken to a tropical storm on Friday. See NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO Headers MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC for more details or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP2.shtml for additional details. Low pressure has formed along a tropical wave near 10.5N102W. Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is noted within 180 nm of the low center. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted elsewhere 05N to 16N between 100W and 110W. Environmental conditions are forecast to be favorable for development of this system during the next several days, and a tropical depression is likely to form by the end of the weekend. Please see the latest eastern North Pacific tropical weather outlook for more information. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 85W N of 02N, moving W around 15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted over forecast waters from 05N to 10N between 82W and 86W. The axis of a tropical wave is near 94W/95 N of 03N, moving W around 15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection was noted from 06N to 08N between 92W and 96W. The axis of a tropical wave is near 102W. Low pressure has developed along the wave axis. Please see the special features section for more on the potential of tropical cyclogenesis with this low. The axis of a tropical wave is near 114W, moving W around 15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 05N to 10N between 110W and 118W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Panama near 08N78W to 10N84W to low pressure near 10.5N102W to 09N116W, then resumes from 10N127W to beyond 07N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection was noted from 06N to 08N E of 80W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection was noted from 05N to 10N between 82W and 86W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection was noted from 06N to 08N between 92W and 96W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 05N to 10N between 110W and 118W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection was noted within 60 nm of the monsoon trough W of 127W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... The pressure gradient between a persistent high pressure ridge to the northwest of Baja California and a low pressure trough along the Gulf of California will support moderate to locally fresh N to NW winds off the coast of Baja California through Fri. Southerly swell generated by Hurricane Barbara will maintain seas to 8 ft across the Baja California Sur offshore waters through Thu, then subside by Thu night. This long period swell will generate high surf and strong rip currents along the coast of Mexico from Baja California Norte to Cabo Corrientes through Thu. Gulf of California: Gentle to moderate winds will prevail over the northern and central Gulf of California for the next several days, with mainly gentle winds over the southern Gulf. Southwest gap winds may strengthen to fresh speeds over the northern Gulf Sun night and Mon. Gulf of Tehuantepec: Light and variable winds will prevail today. Moderate to fresh nocturnal pulsing of gap winds will begin tonight and continue through the upcoming weekend. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Strong offshore winds will prevail across the Gulf of Papagayo through Sat, then remain fresh into early next week. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate offshore winds will prevail north of the monsoon trough, while gentle to moderate S to SW winds are expected south of the monsoon trough for the next few days. A set of long period S to SW swell will move into the waters between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands this weekend. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the special features section for more information on Hurricane Barbara. Please see the special features section for more information on the potential for tropical cyclogenesis well southwest of the southern coast of Mexico. High pressure is centered N of the area near 36N135W. The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and Hurricane Barbara is supporting moderate to fresh winds over forecast waters N of 10N and W of 120W. Swell generated by Hurricane Barbara is producing seas of 8 ft or greater over much of the forecast waters west of 120W. Cross- equatorial SE to SW swell will prevail for the next several days across the waters south of 05N and west of 100W with seas generally 7-10 ft. Wave heights will subside by Sun as swell decays over the southern waters. $$ AL