000 AXPZ20 KNHC 040239 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0239 UTC Thu Jul 4 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0230 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Barbara centered near 14.9N 128.5W at 04/0300 UTC moving WNW at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 947 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 115 kt with gusts to 140 kt. Barbara is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. A west-northwest to northwest motion is anticipated for the next day or two, followed by a turn toward the west on Saturday. Additional weakening is forecast, and Barbara is expected to weaken to a tropical storm on Friday. See NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO Headers MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC for more details or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP2.shtml for additional details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is near 87W, moving W around 10 kt. Isolated weak convection is noted within 90 nm east of the wave axis from 06N to 08N. A tropical wave is near 101W, moving W around 10 kt. Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is noted near the wave from 10N to 14N between 100W and 106W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 07N to 10N between 101W and 107W. Environmental conditions are forecast to be favorable for development of this system during the next several days, and a tropical depression is likely to form by the end of the weekend. This disturbance is expected to move westward to west- northwestward at about 15 mph well south of the coast of Mexico for the next several days. Please see the latest eastern North Pacific tropical weather outlook for more information. A tropical wave is near 113W, moving W around 15 kt. Isolated weak convection is noted within 90 nm of the wave axis from 07N to 10N. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Panama near 08N78W to 10N95W to 1007 mb low pressure near 10N101W to 12N121W, then resumes from 08N133W to beyond 08N140W. Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is noted from 10N to 14N between 100W and 106W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 07N to 10N between 101W and 107W, and within 120 nm of the monsoon trough between 92W and 96W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... The pressure gradient between a persistent high pressure ridge to the northwest of Baja California and a low pressure trough along the Gulf of California will support moderate to locally fresh N to NW winds off the coast of Baja California through Fri. Southerly swell generated by Hurricane Barbara will maintain seas to 8 ft across the Baja California Sur offshore waters through Thu, then subside by Thu night. This long period swell will generate high surf and strong rip currents along the coast of Mexico from Baja California Norte to Cabo Corrientes through Thu. Gulf of California: Gentle to moderate winds will prevail over the northern and central Gulf of California for the next several days, with mainly gentle winds over the southern Gulf. Southwest gap winds may strengthen to fresh speeds over the northern Gulf Sun night and Mon. Gulf of Tehuantepec: Light and variable winds will prevail through Thu. Moderate to fresh nocturnal pulsing of offshore gap winds will begin Thu night and continue through the upcoming weekend. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Strong offshore winds will prevail across the Gulf of Papagayo tonight through Sat, then remain fresh into early next week. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate offshore winds will prevail north of the monsoon trough, while gentle to moderate S to SW winds are expected south of the monsoon trough for the next few days. Wave heights have likely subsided below 8 ft south of the Equator in decaying southerly swell. Another set of long period S to SW swell will move into the waters between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands this weekend. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the special features section for more information on Hurricane Barbara. Please see the tropical waves section for more information on the potential for tropical cyclogenesis well south of the coast of Mexico. High pressure prevails across the northern waters tonight. Earlier scatterometer data revealed moderate trades north of roughly 22N. Elsewhere, swell generated by Hurricane Barbara will continue spreading across the forecast waters, with seas 8 ft or greater covering much of the region west of 120W. Cross-equatorial SE to SW swell will prevail for the next several days across the waters south of 05N and west of 100W with seas generally 7-10 ft. Wave heights will subside by Sun as swell decays over the southern waters. $$ Reinhart