000 AXPZ20 KNHC 032129 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2130 UTC Wed Jul 3 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2130 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Barbara centered near 14.3N 127.5W at 03/2100 UTC moving WNW at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 941 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 120 kt with gusts to 145 kt. Barbara remains a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. A motion toward the northwest is expected to begin later today and continue through Friday. Weakening is forecast, and Barbara is expected to weaken to a tropical storm on Friday. See NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO Headers MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC for more details or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP2.shtml for additional details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave was repositioned near 86W based on recent satellite data. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 120 nm east of the wave axis from 06N to 10N. A tropical wave is near 100W, moving W around 15-20 kt. Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is noted near this wave from 07N to 13N between 98W and 106W. This system currently has a low probability of development during the next 48 hours. However, environmental conditions are conducive for gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form over the weekend while this system moves westward to west-northwestward at about 15 mph well south of the coast of Mexico. Please see the latest east Pacific tropical weather outlook for more information. A tropical wave is near 111W, moving W around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 60 nm of the wave from 07N to 11N. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Panama near 08N78W to 10N90W to 1008 mb low pressure near 09N101W to 12N121W, then resumes from 10N130W to beyond 09N140W. Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is noted from 07N to 13N between 98W and 106W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is occurring within 120 nm south of the monsoon trough between 89W and 94W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... The pressure gradient between a persistent high pressure ridge to the northwest of Baja California and a low pressure trough along the Gulf of California will support moderate to locally fresh N to NW winds off the coast of Baja California through Fri. Southerly swell generated from Hurricane Barbara will spread across the offshore waters of Baja California, building seas of 8 ft through Thu night before subsiding Fri. This long period swell will generate high surf and strong rip currents along the coastlines and outer reefs of Mexico from Baja California Norte to Cabo Corrientes through Thu. Gulf of California: Generally moderate winds will prevail over the northern and central Gulf of California, with gentle winds over the southern Gulf. Winds may strengthen to fresh speeds over the northern Gulf Sun night and Mon. Gulf of Tehuantepec: Light and variable winds will prevail through Thu. Moderate to fresh nocturnal pulsing of offshore gap winds will begin Thu night. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong offshore winds will prevail across the Gulf of Papagayo through the upcoming weekend. Elsewhere, gentle offshore winds will prevail north of the monsoon trough, with gentle to moderate S to SW winds expected south of the monsoon trough for the next few days. Southerly swell is maintaining seas of 7-8 ft south of the Equator based on earlier altimeter data. Seas will gradually subside tonight. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the special features section above for more on Hurricane Barbara. Please see the tropical waves section for the potential of tropical cyclogenesis well south of the coast of Mexico. High pressure prevails across the northern waters. Moderate trades prevail north of roughly 22N based on recent scatterometer data. Swell generated from Barbara will continue spreading across the forecast waters, with seas 8 ft or greater covering much of the region west of 120W. Cross equatorial SE to SW swell will prevail for the next several days across the waters S of 05N and west of 100W with seas generally 7-9 ft. $$ Reinhart