853 AXPZ20 KNHC 031603 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1336 UTC Wed Jul 3 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1520 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Dangerous Hurricane Barbara centered near 13.5N 125.6W at 03/1500 UTC moving WNW at 9 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 939 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 125 kt with gusts to 150 kt. Barbara remains a category 4 hurricane. Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is seen in the NW semicircle within 90 nm of the center and in the SE semicircle within 60 nm. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is found elsewhere in the SE semicircle within 300 nm and in the NW semicircle within 150 nm. Barbara peaked in intensity earlier this morning, and has begun a weakening trend. Barbara is forecast to weaken to a tropical storm on Friday. See NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO Headers MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC for more details or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP2.shtml for additional details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave has an axis extending from 01N84W to 14N84W, moving W around 5 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted near and E of the wave axis from 06N to 11N between 82W and 86W. A tropical wave has an axis extending from 02N95W to 15N96W, moving W around 10 kt. Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is noted in the vicinity of this wave from 07N to 11N between 97W and 101W. This system is being monitored for the potential of tropical cyclone development, and currently has a low probability of development during the next 48 hours. However, low pressure is expected to form along this tropical wave several hundred miles southwest of the southern coast of Mexico during the next couple of days, and there is a high probability of this low developing into a tropical cyclone within the next 5 days. Please see the latest east Pacific tropical weather outlook for more information. A tropical wave has an axis extending from 01N109W to 17N108W, moving W around 10 kt. This wave is embedded in a broad area of scattered moderate and isolated strong convection straddling both side of the monsoon trough from 05N to 13N. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from low pres 1009 mb near 11N74W to 07N79W to 10N89W to 09N104W to 12N121W, then resumes from 11N129W to 09N134W to beyond 09N140W. Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is noted from 07N to 11N between 97W and 101W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is seen elsewhere within 270 nm of the monsoon trough axis between 80W and 112W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... The pressure gradient between a nearly stationary high pressure ridge to the northwest of Baja and troughing along the Gulf of California will support moderate to fresh N to NW winds off the coast of Baja California through Fri. Southerly swell generated from Hurricane Barbara will spread across the offshore waters of Baja California, bringing seas of 8 ft through Thu night before beginning to subside. This strong swell will generate high surf and very strong rip currents along the coastlines and outer reefs of Mexico from Cabo Corrientes to Baja California Norte through Thu. Gulf of California: Moderate to locally fresh winds will prevail over the northern gulf N of 29N. Gentle to locally moderate winds are expected over the remainder of the gulf. Southerly swell from Barbara will maintain seas of 5-6 ft across the entrance to the gulf through tonight before subsiding Wed. Gulf of Tehuantepec: Light and variable winds will prevail through Thu. Fresh nocturnal pulsing of offshore gap winds will begin Thu night. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong offshore winds will prevail across the Gulf of Papagayo through the week. Elsewhere, gentle offshore winds will prevail N of the monsoon trough, with gentle to moderate S to SW winds expected S of the monsoon trough the next few days. S to SW swell is maintaining seas of 7- to 8 ft south of the equator. Seas will then gradually subside later today through the rest of the week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the special features section above for more on Hurricane Barbara. Please see the tropical waves section for the potential of tropical cyclogenesis several hundred miles southwest of the southern coast of Mexico through this weekend. High pressure prevails across the northern waters. Outside of Hurricane Barbara, moderate to fresh trades and seas in the 5 to 8 ft range in mixed swell prevail. Barbara will continue tracking WNW to NW this week. Swell generated from Barbara will spread across the forecast waters, with seas 8 ft or greater covering much of the forecast waters west of 120W by late Thu. Cross equatorial SE to SW swell, with seas in the 7 to 8 ft range, will prevail much of the week across the waters S of 05N and west of 100W. $$ CAM