000
AXPZ20 KNHC 030851
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0845 UTC Wed Jul 3 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0845 UTC. 

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Dangerous Hurricane Barbara centered near 13.5N 125.6W at 03/0900
UTC moving WNW at 12 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 
933 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 135 kt with gusts to 165 
kt, making Barbara a strong category 4 hurricane. Numerous 
moderate to strong convection is seen within 60 nm of the center 
of Barbara, while scattered to numerous moderate to strong 
convection is elsewhere from 09N to 16N between 120W and 128W. 
Barbara has likely reached its peak intensity, and is forecast 
to begin a weakening trend today. See NHC Forecast/Advisory 
under AWIPS/WMO Headers MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC for more details or
at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP2.shtml for 
additional details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 85W, moving W around 15 kt. 
Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 06N to 10N
between 83W and 88W.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 96W, moving W around 15 kt. 
Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted in the vicinity 
of this wave from 06N to 13N. This system should be monitored for
the potential of tropical cyclone development, and currently has
a low probability of development during the next 48 hours. 
However, low pressure is expected to form along this tropical 
wave several hundred miles southwest of the southern coast of 
Mexico later this week, and there is a high probability of this 
low developing into a tropical cyclone during the next 5 days. 
Please see the latest east Pacific tropical weather outlook for 
more information. 

The axis of a tropical wave is near 109W, moving W around 15 kt.
Widely scattered moderate isolated strong convection is seen in 
the vicinity of this wave from 06N to 10N.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 09N85W to 10N96W to 09N103W to 
12N114W to 12N119W, then resumes from 11N128W TO 08.5N137W to 
beyond 09N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is 
noted from 08N to 11N between 86W and 90W. Scattered moderate
isolated strong convection is noted from 05N to 15N between 95W
and 105W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 07N to 11N
between 110W and 116W. Scattered moderate convection was noted
within 150 nm S of the monsoon trough west of 128W. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... 

The pressure gradient between a nearly stationary high pressure 
ridge to the northwest of Baja and troughing along the Gulf of 
California will support moderate to fresh N to NW winds off the 
coast of Baja California through Fri. Southerly swell generated 
from Hurricane Barbara will spread across the offshore waters of
Baja California, bringing seas of 8 ft through Thu night before 
beginning to subside. This strong swell will generate high surf 
and very strong rip currents along the coastlines and outer reefs
of Mexico from Cabo Corrientes to Baja California Norte through 
Thu.

Gulf of California: Moderate to locally fresh winds will prevail 
over the northern gulf N of 29N. Gentle to locally moderate 
winds are expected over the remainder of the gulf. Southerly 
swell from Barbara will maintain seas of 5-6 ft across the 
entrance to the gulf through tonight before subsiding Wed.

Gulf of Tehuantepec: Light and variable winds will prevail 
through Thu. Fresh nocturnal pulsing of offshore gap winds will 
begin Thu night.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to strong offshore winds will prevail across the Gulf of 
Papagayo through the week. Elsewhere, gentle offshore winds will 
prevail N of the monsoon trough, with gentle to moderate S to SW 
winds expected S of the monsoon trough the next few days. S to 
SW swell is bringing seas of 7-8 ft south of the equator. Seas 
will then gradually subside later today through the rest of the 
week.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA... 

Please see the special features section above for more on 
Hurricane Barbara.

Please see the tropical waves section for the potential of 
tropical cyclogenesis several hundred miles southwest of the 
southern coast of Mexico through this weekend. 

High pressure prevails across the northern waters. Outside of 
Hurricane Barbara, moderate to fresh trades and seas in the 5 to
8 ft range in mixed swell prevail. Barbara will continue WNW to
NW this week. Swell generated from Barbara will spread across 
the forecast waters, with seas 8 ft or greater covering much of 
the forecast waters west of 120W by late Thu. 

Cross equatorial SE to SW swell, with seas in the 7 to 8 ft 
range, will prevail much of the week across the waters S of 05N 
and west of 100W.

$$
AL