000 AXPZ20 KNHC 030240 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Wed Jul 3 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0200 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Dangerous Hurricane Barbara centered near 13.1N 124.6W at 0300 UTC moving WNW at 12 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 933 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 135 kt with gusts to 165 kt, making Barbara a strong category 4 hurricane. Numerous strong convection is seen within 75 nm N and 60 nm S semicircles, while scattered to numerous moderate to strong convection is elsewhere within 120 nm N and 90 nm S of the center. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is present elsewhere within 270 nm of the center. Barbara has likely reached its peak in intensity this evening, with minor fluctuations expected overnight. Thereafter, a decrease in forward speed is expected to begin, followed by a turn toward the northwest in a day or two, which will take the hurricane over cooler SST's and lead to a weakening trend. Moderate to large southerly swell from Barbara has begun to reach Baja California Sur this afternoon and will spread northward to the rest of the peninsula overnight. See NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO Headers MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC for more details or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP2.shtml for additional details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 87W-88W, moving W around 15 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted in the vicinity and east of the wave to 80W. A tropical wave is along 96W-97W, moving W around 15 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted in the vicinity of this wave from 06N to 13N. This system should be monitored for the potential of tropical cyclone development, and currently has a low probability of development during the next 48 hours. However, low pressure is expected to form along this tropical wave several hundred miles southwest of the southern coast of Mexico later this week, and there is a high probability of this low developing into a tropical cyclone during the next 5 days. Please see the latest east Pacific tropical weather outlook for more information. A tropical wave is along 108W-109W, moving W around 15 kt. Widely scattered moderate isolated strong convection is seen in the vicinity of this wave, and has diminished in coverage during the past several hours. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 08N73W TO 10N82W TO 10N101W TO 12.5N118W, then resumes from 11N128W TO 08.5N137W to beyond 09N140W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 05N to 11N between 80W and 103W, and from 11N to 13.5N between 94W and 103W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is within 150 nm S of the trough axis W of 128W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... The pressure gradient between a nearly stationary high pressure ridge to the northwest of Baja and troughing along the Gulf of California will support moderate to fresh N to NW winds off the coast of Baja California through Fri. Southerly swell generated from Hurricane Barbara has already begun to produce seas to 8 ft across the offshore waters of Baja California Sur today and will spread across the remaining offshore waters of Baja California through Thu night before beginning to subside. This strong swell will generate high surf and very strong rip currents along the coastlines and outer reefs of Mexico from Cabo Corrientes to Baja California Norte through Thu. Gulf of California: Moderate to locally fresh winds will prevail over the northern gulf N of 29N. Gentle to locally moderate winds are expected over the remainder of the gulf. Southerly swell from Barbara will maintain seas of 5-6 ft across the entrance to the gulf through tonight before subsiding Wed. Gulf of Tehuantepec: Light and variable winds will prevail through Thu. Fresh nocturnal pulsing of offshore gap winds will begin Thu night. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong offshore winds will prevail across the Gulf of Papagayo through the week. Elsewhere, gentle offshore winds will prevail N of the monsoon trough, with gentle to moderate S to SW winds expected S of the monsoon trough the next few days. S to SW swell is bringing seas of 7-8 ft south of the equator, and will increase by about 1 foot south of 10N through Wed. Seas will then gradually subside through the week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the special features section above for more on Hurricane Barbara. Please see the tropical waves section for the potential of tropical cyclogenesis several hundred miles southwest of the southern coast of Mexico through this weekend. High pressure prevails across the northern waters. Outside of Hurricane Barbara, moderate to fresh trades and seas in the 5 to 8 ft range in mixed swell prevail. Barbara will continue WNW to NW this week. Swell generated from Barbara will spread across the forecast waters, with seas 8 ft or greater covering much of the forecast waters west of 120W by late Thu. Cross equatorial SE to SW swell, with seas in the 7 to 8 ft range, will prevail much of the week across the waters S of 05N and west of 100W. $$ Stripling