000 AXPZ20 KNHC 022211 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Tue Jul 2 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Dangerous Hurricane Barbara centered near 12.9N 123.2W at 2100 UTC moving WNW at 11 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 945 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 120 kt with gusts to 145 kt. Numerous strong convection is seen within 50 nm of the center, while scattered to numerous moderate to strong convection is elsewhere within 150 nm N and 90 nm S of the center. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is present elsewhere within 360 nm of the center. There remains time through this evening for some minor strengthening of Barbara. Thereafter, a decrease in forward speed is expected to begin, followed by a turn toward the northwest in a day or two, which will take the hurricane over cooler SST's and lead to a weakening trend. See NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO Headers MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC for more details or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP2.shtml for additional details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 86W, moving W around 15 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted in the vicinity and east of the wave to 80W. A tropical wave is along 94W , moving W around 15 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted in the vicinity of this wave. This system should be monitored for the potential of tropical cyclone development, and has a low probability of development during the next 48 hours. However, low pressure is expected to form along this tropical wave several hundred miles southwest of the southern coast of Mexico later this week, and there is a high probability of this low developing into a tropical depression during the next 5 days. Please see the latest east Pacific tropical weather outlook for more information. A tropical wave is along 107W , moving W around 15 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is seen in the vicinity of this wave, mainly to the east between 99W and 104W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from low pres 1009 mb near 10N74W to 007.5N94W TO 11N108W TO 11N114W, then resumes from 10N128W TO 08.5N135W to beyond 10N140W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 05N to 13.5N between 80W and 105W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... The pressure gradient between a nearly stationary high pressure ridge to the northwest of Baja and troughing along the Gulf of California will support N to NW moderate to fresh winds off the coast of Baja California through Fri. Southerly swell generated from Hurricane Barbara has already begun to produce seas to 8 ft across the offshore waters of Baja California Sur today and will spread across the remaining offshore waters of Baja California through Thu night before beginning to subside. Gulf of California: Moderate to locally fresh winds will prevail over the northern gulf N of 29N. Gentle to locally moderate winds are expected over the remainder of the gulf. Southerly swell from Barbara will maintain seas of 5-6 ft across the entrance to the gulf through tonight before subsiding Wed. Gulf of Tehuantepec: Light and variable winds will prevail through Thu. Fresh nocturnal pulsing of offshore gap winds will begin Thu night. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong offshore winds will prevail across the Gulf of Papagayo through the week. Elsewhere, gentle offshore winds will prevail N of the monsoon trough, with gentle to moderate S to SW winds expected S of the monsoon trough the next few days. S to SW swell is bringing seas of 7-8 ft south of the equator, and will increase by about 1 foot south of 10-N through Wed. Seas will then gradually subside through the week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the special features section above for more on Hurricane Barbara. Please see the tropical waves section for the potential of tropical cyclogenesis several hundred miles southwest of the southern coast of Mexico through this weekend. High pressure prevails across the northern waters. Outside of Hurricane Barbara, moderate to fresh trades and seas in the 5 to 8 ft range in mixed swell prevail. Barbara will continue WNW to NW this week. Swell generated from Barbara will spread across the forecast waters, with seas 8 ft or greater covering much of the forecast waters west of 120W by late Thu. Cross equatorial SE to SW swell, with seas in the 7 to 8 ft range, will prevail much of the week across the waters S of 05N and west of 100W. $$ Stripling