000 AXPZ20 KNHC 021603 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1437 UTC Tue Jul 2 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1520 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Barbara centered near 12.5N 122.2W at 02/1500 UTC moving WNW at 12 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 948 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 115 kt with gusts to 140 kt. Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is found within 150 nm of the center. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is present elsewhere within 360 nm of the center. A decrease in forward speed is expected to begin today, followed by a turn toward the northwest in a day or two. Barbara is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some additional strengthening is possible today, but weakening is likely to begin on Wednesday and continue into Thursday. See NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO Headers MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC for more details or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP2.shtml for additional details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave has an axis extending from 02N84W to 15N84W, moving W around 15 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted in the vicinity of the wave. A tropical wave has an axis extending from 03N92W to 14N92W, moving W around 15 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted in the vicinity of this wave. This system will be one to monitor for the potential of tropical cyclone development. This system has a low probability of development during the next 48 hours. However, low pressure is expected to form along this tropical wave several hundred miles southwest of the southern coast of Mexico later this week, and there is a high probability of this low developing into a tropical depression during the next 5 days. Please see the latest east Pacific tropical weather outlook for more information. A tropical wave has an axis extending from 04N106W to 16N105W, moving W around 15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is seen in the vicinity of this wave. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from low pres 1010 mb near 10N74W to 08N86W to 11N106W to 11N113W. Trough resumes from 09N126W to 08.5N131W. The ITCZ continues from 08.5N131W to 09N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is observed within 270 nm of the trough axis E of 108W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 180 nm of the monsoon trough and ITCZ axes W of 127W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Gulf of Tehuantepec: Light and variable winds will prevail through Thu. Fresh nocturnal pulsing of winds will begin Thu night. Gulf of California: Moderate to locally fresh winds will prevail over the northern gulf N of 29N. Gentle to locally moderate winds over the remainder of the gulf. The pressure gradient between a nearly stationary high pressure ridge to the west of Baja and troughing along the Gulf of California will support N to NW moderate to fresh winds off the coast of Baja California through Fri. Southerly swell generated from Hurricane Barbara will bring seas to 8 ft over the offshore waters of Baja California through the week. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong winds will prevail across the Gulf of Papagayo through the week. Elsewhere, gentle offshore winds will prevail N of the monsoon trough, with gentle to moderate S to SW winds expected S of the monsoon trough the next few days. S to SW swell is bringing seas of 7-8 ft south of the equator. Seas will gradually subside through the week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the special features section above for more on Hurricane Barbara. Please see the tropical waves section for the potential of tropical cyclogenesis several hundred miles southwest of the southern coast of Mexico through this weekend. High pressure prevails across the northern waters. Outside of Hurricane Barbara, moderate to fresh trades and seas in the 5 to 8 ft range in mixed swell prevail. Barbara will continue WNW to NW this week. Swell generated from Barbara will spread across the forecast waters, with seas 8 ft or greater covering much of the forecast waters west of 120W by late Thu. Cross equatorial SE to SW swell, with seas in the 7 to 8 ft range, will prevail much of the week across the waters S of 04N and west of 100W. $$ CAM