000 AXPZ20 KNHC 020857 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0850 UTC Tue Jul 2 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0850 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Barbara centered near 12.0N 121.1W at 02/0900 UTC moving W at 13 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 969 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 95 kt with gusts to 115 kt. Numerous moderate to strong convection is within 150 nm of the cyclone center. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is elsewhere from 08N to 15N between 115W and 125W. Barbara is forecast to intensify while continuing on its westward motion, becoming a major hurricane later tonight. A weakening trend is expected to begin by Thu. See NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO Headers MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC for more details or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP2.shtml for additional details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 90W, N of 03N, moving W at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 06N to 10N between 82W and 97W. This tropical wave will be one to watch with interest for the potential of tropical cyclone development. There is currently a low probability of development within the next 48 hours. However, low pressure is expected to form along this tropical wave several hundred miles southwest of the southern coast of Mexico later this week, and there is a high probability of this low developing into a tropical depression this weekend. Please see the latest east Pacific tropical weather outlook for more information. The axis of a tropical wave is near 104W, N of 05N, moving W at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 07N to 13N between 100W and 110W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 08N78W to 07N86W to 11N104W. It resumes from 10N123W to 08N130W. The ITCZ continues from 08N130W to beyond 09N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection was noted N of 03N E of 80W. Scattered moderate convection was noted from 05N to 10N between 127W and 135W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Gulf of Tehuantepec: Light and variable winds will prevail through Thu. Fresh nocturnal pulsing of winds will begin Thu night. Gulf of California: Moderate to locally fresh winds will prevail over the northern gulf N of 29N. Gentle to locally moderate winds over the remainder of the gulf. The pressure gradient between a nearly stationary high pressure ridge to the west of Baja and troughing along the Gulf of California will support N to NW moderate to fresh winds off the coast of Baja California through Fri. Southerly swell generated from Hurricane Barbara will bring seas to 8 ft over the offshore waters of Baja California through the week. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong winds will prevail across the Gulf of Papagayo through the week. Elsewhere, gentle offshore winds will prevail N of the monsoon trough, with gentle to moderate S to SW winds expected S of the monsoon trough the next few days. S to SW swell is bringing seas of 7-8 ft south of the equator. Seas will gradually subside through the week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the special features section above for more on Hurricane Barbara. Please see the tropical waves section for the potential of tropical cyclogenesis several hundred miles southwest of the southern coast of Mexico this upcoming weekend. High pressure prevails across the northern waters. Outside of Hurricane Barbara, moderate to fresh trades and seas in the 5 to 8 ft range in mixed swell prevail. Barbara will continue on a westward track through the week. Swell generated from Barbara will spread across the forecast waters, with seas 8 ft or greater covering much of the forecast waters west of 120W by late Thu. Cross equatorial southerly swell, with seas in the 7-8 ft range, will prevail much of the week across the waters S of 04N and west of 100W. $$ AL