000 AXPZ20 KNHC 012201 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Mon Jul 1 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2115 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Barbara is centered near 11.5N 118.5W at 01/2100 UTC moving W at 14 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 983 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 75 kt with gusts to 90 kt. Barbara is expected to rapidly intensify into a major hurricane on Tuesday. A weakening trend is expected to begin by Thu. Barbara is moving toward the W, and a gradual turn to the WNW along with a decrease in forward speed is expected over the next couple of days. Numerous moderate to strong convection is within 180 nm of the cyclone center. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is elsewhere from 06N to 15N between 113W and 124W. See NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO Headers MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC for more details or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP2.shtml for additional details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis for a tropical wave is near 88W, N of 04N, moving W at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is located from 05N to 12N east of 94W. This wave is forecast to strengthen over the next several days. The axis of a tropical wave is near 101W, N of 05N, moving W at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is from 08N to 15N between 94W and 110W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N83W to 10N100W to 11N110W, then resumes near 09N122W to 07N130W. ITCZ begins near 07N130W and continues to beyond 08N140W. Aside from the convection from hurricane Barbara and the two tropical waves, scattered moderate convection is from 05N to 10N between 125W and 132W, and from 08N to 14N W of 136W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Gulf of Tehuantepec: Light and variable winds will dominate across the entire period becoming moderate northerlies at night. Gulf of California: Light to gentle winds prevail across the forecast waters. Winds will freshen early Tue before diminishing Fri. The pressure gradient between a nearly stationary high pressure ridge to the west of Baja and troughing along the Gulf of California will support N to NW moderate to fresh winds off the coast of Baja California through Fri. Southerly swell generated from Hurricane Barbara will bring seas to 8 ft over the offshore waters of Baja California through the week. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong winds will prevail across the Gulf of Papagayo through the week. Elsewhere, moderate offshore winds will prevail N of the monsoon trough, with moderate S to SW winds expected S of the monsoon trough the next few days. S to SW swell will build wave heights to near 9 ft over the waters S of the equator by late Mon before subsiding. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see above for more of Tropical Storm Barbara. Outside of Hurricane Barbara, a broad ridge dominates the northern forecast waters. Moderate trades prevail N of the ITCZ and south of the ridge W of 125W, with seas in the 5 to 8 ft range in mixed swell. Barbara is moving toward the west, and a gradual turn to the west-northwest along with a decrease in forward speed is expected over the next couple of days. Swell generated from Barbara will spread across the forecast waters, with seas 8 ft or greater covering much of the forecast waters west of 120W by late Thu. Cross equatorial SE and SW swell 8 to 10 feet will prevail much of the week across waters S of 04N. Low pressure may form 210 to 360 nm S and SW of the southern coast of Mexico in the latter portions of the week. This could lead to increased winds and seas. $$ Ramos