000 AXPZ20 KNHC 010250 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Mon Jul 01 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0215 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Barbara is located near 11.0N 114.2W at 01/0300 UTC, moving W or 280 degrees at 19 kt. This general motion is expected to continue with some decrease in forward speed during the next couple of days. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt gusts to 55 kt. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Barbara is forecast to become a hurricane by Tuesday. Numerous moderate to strong convection is from 07N to 12N between 111W and 117W. Scattered moderate convection is elsewhere from 06N to 13N between 100W and 120W. See NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO Headers MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC for more details or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP2.shtml for additional details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 93W/94W, N of 02N, moving W at 15 kt. Isolated moderate convection is from 06N to 11N between 88W and 95W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N85W to 10N99W. The ITCZ begins near 08N116W and continues to 08N130W to beyond 07N140W. Scattered moderate convection is from 06N to 10N between 120W and 128W, and from 08N to 15N W of 134W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Gulf of Tehuantepec: Fresh to strong northerly winds will diminish to moderate to fresh across the Tehuantepec area Mon morning. Light to gentle variable winds will dominate afterwards through Thu. The pressure gradient between a nearly stationary high pressure ridge to the west of Baja and generally lower pressure along the Gulf of California will support N to NW moderate to fresh winds N of Cabo San Lazaro with seas to 7 ft through Fri. Light and gentle variable winds along the Gulf of California will become moderate to fresh southeasterlies early on Tue. These winds will prevail through Wed, however increasing to fresh to strong N of 29N. Gentle to moderate southerlies will dominate the remainder of the forecast period. Elsewhere relatively tranquil marine conditions are expected. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong winds will pulse across the Gulf of Papagayo beginning tonight and continuing through the remainder week. Building seas will be in the 8 to 10 ft range. Elsewhere, moderate offshore winds will prevail N of the monsoon trough, with moderate S to SW winds expected S of the monsoon trough the next few days. S to SW long period swell reaching the equator this evening will increase offshore wave heights to near 7 ft, and then further to 8-9 ft by late Mon. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Outside of T.S. Barbara in the Special Features section, a broad ridge dominates the northern forecast waters. Moderate trades prevail N of the ITCZ and south of the ridge W of 125W, with seas in the 5 to 9 ft range in mixed swell. Little change in the overall pattern for this region is expected through the middle of the week. $$ NR