000 AXPZ20 KNHC 302204 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Sun Jun 30 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2115 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Barbara is located near 10.9N 112.2W at 30/2100 UTC, moving W or 280 degrees at 16 kt. This general motion is expected to continue with some decrease in forward speed during the next couple of days. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt gusts to 50 kt. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Barbara is forecast to become a hurricane by Tuesday. Numerous moderate to strong convection is within 180 nm of the center. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is observed elsewhere from 06N to 14N between 105W AND 118W. See NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO Headers MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC for more details or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for additional details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 92W, N of 02N, moving W at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 07N to 12N between 89W and 94W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 08N82W to 09N88W to 10N105W then resumes west of T.S. Barbara near 09N114W, and continues along 07N120W to 08N130W. The ITCZ continues from 08N130W to beyond 07N140W. Outside of the convection associated with T.S. Barbara, and the tropical wave along 92W, scattered moderate convection is N of 04N E of 86W, from 06N to 15N between 97W and 105W, from 05N to 11N between 116W and 127W, and from 09N to 13N between 134W and 139W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Gulf of Tehuantepec: Fresh to strong northerly winds will diminish to moderate to fresh across the Tehuantepec area tonight. Light to gentle variable winds will dominate afterwards through the middle of the week. Elsewhere relatively tranquil marine conditions are expected for the next several days over the Gulf of California, and the offshore waters of Baja California. Late afternoon and evening winds along the Pacific coast of the Baja Peninsula will reach around 20 kt for the next few days, but otherwise typical early summer conditions will prevail under modest high pressure. Long period SW swell will reach the entire W coast of Baja California by Mon, with seas in the 6 to 7 ft range affecting the offshore forecast waters Mon through Wed. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong winds will pulse across the Gulf of Papagayo starting tonight and continuing through the remainder week. Building seas will be in the 8 to 10 ft range. Elsewhere, moderate offshore winds will prevail N of the monsoon trough, with moderate S to SW winds expected S of the monsoon trough the next few days. S to SW long period swell reaching the equator this evening will increase offshore wave heights to near 7 ft, and then further to 8-9 ft by late Mon. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Outside of T.S. Barbara in the Special Features section, a broad ridge dominates the northern forecast waters. Moderate trades prevail N of the ITCZ and south of the ridge W of 125W, with seas in the 5 to 9 ft range in mixed swell. Little change in the overall pattern for this region is expected through the middle of the week. $$ NR