000 AXPZ20 KNHC 301527 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1309 UTC Sun Jun 30 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... The area of low pressure located over the Eastern Pacific waters is upgraded to Tropical Storm Barbara at 30/1500 UTC. At this time, Barbara is centered near 10.6N 110.4W moving W-NW or 285 degrees at 14 kt, and this general motion is expected to continue over the next several days, with a gradual decrease in forward speed. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt gusts to 45 kt. Steady strengthening is forecast and Barbara is expected to become a hurricane by Tuesday. Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted within 180 nm S of center. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is observed elsewhere from 07N to 12N between 105W AND 115W. See NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO Headers MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC for more details or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for additional details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 90W, N of 01N, moving W at 15 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted ahead of the wave axis from 10N to 13N between 90W and 94W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N86W to 10N110W to 07N130W. The ITCZ continues from 07N130W to beyond 07N140W. Outside of the convection associated with T.S. Barbara, and the tropical wave along 90W, a cluster of moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 04N to 07N E of 83W to the coast of Colombia. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 06N to 12N between 100W and 105W, and from 06N to 09N between 115W and 125W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Gulf of Tehuantepec: Fresh to strong northerly winds will prevail across the Tehuantepec area through early Mon morning. Elsewhere relatively tranquil marine conditions are expected for the next several days over the Gulf of California, and the offshore waters of Baja California. Late afternoon and evening winds along the Pacific coast of the Baja Peninsula will reach around 20 kt for the next few days, but otherwise typical early summer conditions will prevail under modest high pressure. Long period SW swell will reach the entire W coast of Baja California by Mon, with seas in the 6 to 7 ft range affecting the offshore forecast waters Mon through Wed. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Winds will strengthen across the Gulf of Papagayo tonight. Expect fresh to strong easterly winds and building seas in the 8 to 10 ft range. These marine conditions will persist most of the forecast period. Elsewhere, moderate offshore winds will prevail N of the monsoon trough, with moderate S to SW winds expected S of the monsoon trough the next few days. S to SW long period swell will reach the equator today, increasing offshore wave heights to near 7 ft, and then further to 8-9 ft by late Mon. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Outside of T.S. Barbara in the Special Features section, a broad ridge dominates the northern forecast waters. Moderate trades prevail N of the ITCZ and south of the ridge W of 125W, with seas in the 5 to 8 ft range in mixed swell. Little change in the overall pattern for this region is expected for several more days. $$ GR