000
AXPZ20 KNHC 300837
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
623 UTC Sun Jun 30 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0830 UTC. 

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gale Warning: Low pressure of 1006 mb is centered near 10N108W. 
Overnight ASCATC pass indicates winds reaching gale force within 
120 nm E semicircle of the low. Numerous moderate to scattered 
strong convection is noted from 07N to 11N between 105W and 110W.
The low is expected to become better organized today, and this 
system has a high chance of becoming a tropical storm today. 
Please refer to the latest east Pacific tropical weather outlook 
for more information on the potential for tropical cyclogenesis. 
Please see the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National 
Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers FZPN03 KNHC/HSFEP2 or at
website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for 
additional details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 88W, N of 01N, moving W 
at 15 kt. This feature has no significant convection associated 
with it.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 96W, N of 01N, moving W 
between 10 and 15 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong 
convection is noted from 04N to 10N between 94W and 97W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 08N82W to 08N87W to low pres 
near 10N108W to 08N124W to 09N130W. The ITCZ continues from 
09N130W to beyond 09N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong 
convection is noted N of 05N E of 80W. Scattered moderate 
isolated strong convection is noted from 04N to 10N between 94W 
and 97W. Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is 
noted in the vicinity of the low from 07N to 11N between 105W and
110W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted 
from 05N to 10N between 110W and 120W. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... 

Gulf of Tehuantepec: Fresh to strong northerly winds will prevail 
across the Tehuantepec area through Mon morning.

Elsewhere relatively tranquil marine conditions are expected for
the next several days over the Gulf of California, and the 
offshore waters of Baja California. Late afternoon and evening 
winds along the Pacific coast of the Baja Peninsula will reach 
around 20 kt for the next few days, but otherwise typical early 
summer conditions will prevail under modest high pressure. Long
period SW swell will reach the entire W coast of Baja California
by Mon, with seas in the 6 to 7 ft range affecting the offshore 
forecast waters Mon through Wed. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Winds will strengthen across the Gulf of Papagayo Sun night. 
Elsewhere, moderate offshore winds will prevail N of the monsoon 
trough, with moderate S to SW winds expected S of the monsoon 
trough the next few days. S to SW long period swell will reach 
the equator today, increasing offshore wave heights to near 7 
ft, and then further to 8-9 ft by late Mon. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA... 

Outside of the developing tropical system in the special features
section, a broad ridge dominates the northern forecast waters. 
Moderate trades prevail N of the ITCZ and south of the ridge W of
125W, with seas in the 5 to 8 ft range in mixed swell. Little 
change in the overall pattern for this region is expected for 
several more days. 

$$
AL