000 AXPZ20 KNHC 300250 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 035 UTC Sun Jun 30 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0220 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Developing low pressure measuring 1008 mb is centered near 09.5N106.5W. Showers and thunderstorms surrounding the low are becoming better organized and the low is expected to deepen during the next several days. This system retains a high chance of becoming a tropical depression as it tracks toward the W or WNW around 15 kt during the next 48 hours. Winds in the vicinity of the low are expected to increase to gale force Sun night or Monday. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave has an axis extending from 02N83W to 20N84W moving W between 20 and 25 kt. This feature has no significant convection associated with it. A tropical wave has an axis extending from 01N97W to 14N97W moving W between 10 and 15 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is taking place from 06N to 09N between 94W and 96W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N74W to 07N83W to to low pres 1008 mb near 09.5N106.5W to 08N114W to 07N122W. The ITCZ continues from 07N122W to 09N132W to beyond 09N140W. Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is seen in the vicinity of the low from 08N to 10N between 106W and 110W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is observed elsewhere from 06N to 13N between 100W and 122W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is found within 150 nm either side of a line from 12N130W to 09N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 06N to 09N between 94W and 96W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Gulf of Tehuantepec: High pressure over the NW Gulf of Mexico is combining with developing low pressure S of Cabo Corrientes near 09.5N106.5W to maintain near gale conditions over the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Fresh to strong northerly winds will continue to blow across the Tehuantepec area through Mon morning. Elsewhere relatively tranquil marine conditions are expected for the next several days over the Gulf of California, and the offshore waters of Baja California. Late afternoon and evening winds along the Pacific coast of the Baja Peninsula will reach around 20 kt for the next few days, but otherwise typical early summer conditions will prevail under modest high pressure. Long period SW swell will reach the entire W coast of Baja California by Mon, with seas in the 6 to 8 ft range affecting the offshore forecast waters Mon through Wed. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh winds across the Gulf of Papagayo will become strong Mon through Wed night, then winds over the Gulf could increase to near gale force Thu. Elsewhere moderate offshore winds will prevail north of the monsoon trough, with moderate S to SW winds expected S of the monsoon trough the next few days. S to SW long period swell will propagate north of the equator on Sun, increasing offshore wave heights to near 7 ft, and then further to 8-9 ft by late Mon. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A broad ridge dominates the northern forecast waters. Moderate trades prevail N of the ITCZ and south of the ridge W of 125W, with corresponding seas running in the 5 to 8 ft range in mixed swell. Little change in the overall pattern for this region is expected for several more days. Seas in this region are expected to build to between 8 and 10 ft during the second half of next week as cross-equatorial swell combine with swell generated by the developing low currently near 09.5N106.5W as it tracks trough the region as a tropical cyclone. $$ CAM