000 AXPZ20 KNHC 292205 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2018 UTC Sat Jun 29 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2045 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A westward moving tropical wave has spawned new low pressure near 09N105W. Showers and thunderstorms surrounding the low are gradually becoming better organized and the low is expected to deepen for at least the next several days. This system retains a high chance of becoming a tropical depression during the next 48 hours. Winds in the vicinity of the low are expected to increase to gale force Sun night or Monday. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave has an axis extending from 02N82W to 21N83W moving W between 20 and 25 kt. Convection associated with this wave is confined to within 90 nm of the monsoon trough axis between 80W and 90W. A tropical wave has an axis extending from 01N95W to 14N96W moving W between 10 and 15 kt. This feature has no significant convection associated with it. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N73W to 05N82W to 09N94W to low pres 1007 mb near 09N105W to 08N113W to 10N121W. The ITCZ continues from 10N121W to 09N137W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is observed within 90 nm S of the trough between 85W and 88W. Similar convection is also noted from 06N to 11N between 113W and 121W, and from 08N to 11N between 130W and 135W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Gulf of Tehuantepec: High pressure over the NW Gulf of Mexico combined with a tropical wave passing south of the Tehuantepec region is still producing near gale conditions over the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Fresh to strong northerly winds will continue to blow across the Tehuantepec area through Mon morning. Elsewhere relatively tranquil marine conditions are expected for the next several days over the Gulf of California, and the offshore waters of Baja California. Late afternoon and evening winds along the Pacific coast of the Baja Peninsula will reach around 20 kt for the next few days, but otherwise typical early summer conditions will prevail under modest high pressure. Long period SW swell will reach the entire W coast of Baja California by Mon, with seas in the 6 to 8 ft range affecting the offshore forecast waters Mon through Wed. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Winds across the Gulf of Papagayo will strengthen late Sun night, then pulse each night through Wed night. Elsewhere moderate offshore winds will prevail north of the monsoon trough, with moderate S-SW winds south of the monsoon trough the next few days. S to SW long-period swell will propagate north of the equator on Sun, increasing offshore wave heights to near 7 ft, and then further to 8-9 ft by late Mon. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Tropical Storm Alvin weakened into a remnant low this morning. The low will continue to move WNW to NW until it dissipates in about 18 to 24 hours. At 1500 UTC, the last advisory was issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system. Outside of Alvin, a broad ridge dominates the northern forecast waters. Moderate trades prevail south of this ridge and west of 125W, with seas in the 5 to 8 ft range in mixed swell. Little change in the overall pattern is expected for several more days. Trades will strengthen slightly in the W central waters this weekend into early next week, with seas building to between 8 and 10 ft. $$ CAM