000 AXPZ20 KNHC 272216 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2153 UTC Thu Jun 27 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Alvin centered near 16.6N 114.2W at 27/2100 UTC, or about 450 nm SSW of the southern tip of Baja California, moving WNW at 12 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 55 kt with gusts to 65 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is within 75 nm northwest and 60 southeast semicircles. Little change in intensity is expected during the next 24 hours. A weakening trend is expected to begin Friday, with Alvin expected to become a remnant low by Sat night. See latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC for more details. Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: High pressure over the Gulf of Mexico combined with a tropical wave south of Central America are causing a Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event. N to NE gale conditions are expected tonight through Sat night before slowly dimishing Sun and Mon. Peak seas are expected to reach around 13 ft tonight and Fri. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers FZPN03 KNHC/HSFEP2 or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is analyzed north of 02N near 85W, moving W around 15 kt. No significant convection is associated with this wave. A tropical wave is analyzed north of 03N near 95W, moving W around 15 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is from 04N to 08N between 90W and 98W. Computer models suggest this wave will become better organized into the weekend and has potential to develop into a tropical cyclone after 48 hours. A tropical wave is analyzed from 01N to 13N near 133W, moving W around 15 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is from 06N to 10N from 123W to 135W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from the coast of Panama near 08N78W to 09N138W. The ITCZ is now extending mainly west of 09N140W. Except for convection associated with tropical waves described above, little convection is occurring along the monsoon trough or ITCZ. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please read the Special Features section for more details about the Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning. Quiescent conditions are expected for the next several days over the Gulf of California. Tropical Storm Alvin is expected to not significantly impact the Mexican offshore zone, with moderate to fresh NW to N winds west of Cabo Corrientes and Baja California through at least Mon night. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... A large north to south pressure gradient across Central America is causing a Gulf of Papagayo gap wind event. These fresh to strong NE winds will diminish Sat night as the pressure gradient relaxes. Moderate offshore winds will prevail north of the monsoon trough, with moderate S-SW winds south of the trough axis the next few days. New S to SW long-period swell will reach the equatorial zone beginning on Sun and produce rough waves. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please read the Special Features section for more details about Tropical Storm Alvin. A broad weak ridge extends from high pressure NNW of the area. Gentle to moderate trades prevail south of the ridge. Seas are mainly 5-8 ft in mixed northerly and southerly swell. Overall high pressure will continue for several more days. Trades will strengthen slightly in the W central waters this weekend into early next week, with seas building to 8-10 ft, and SE swell along the equator will gradually decay. $$ KONARIK