000 AXPZ20 KNHC 271603 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1528 UTC Thu Jun 27 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Alvin centered near 15.8N 113.1W at 27/1500 UTC moving WNW at 12 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is within 60 nm of the center. Little change in intensity is expected during the next 24 hours. A weakening trend is expected to begin Friday, with Alvin expected to become a remnant low by Sat night. See latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC for more details. Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: High pressure over the Gulf of Mexico combined with a tropical wave south of Central America are causing a Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event. N to NE gale conditions are expected tonight through Sat night before slowly dimishing Sun and Mon. Peak seas are expected to reach around 13 ft tonight and Fri. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers FZPN03 KNHC/HSFEP2 or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is analyzed north of 02N near 83W, moving W around 15 kt. No significant deep convection is currently present in association with this wave. A tropical wave is analyzed north of 03N near 93W, moving W around 15 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is from 04N to 07N between 90W and 95W. A tropical wave is analyzed from 01N to 13N near 131W, moving W around 15 kt. No significant deep convection is currently present in association with this wave. A new tropical wave was added to the analysis from 02N to 15N near 140W, moving W around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm east of the axis between 06N and 10N. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from the coast of Colombia near 08N78W to 09N125W. The ITCZ extends from 09N125W to 09N130W, where it is broken by a tropical wave, then resumes at 09N132W to 09N138W. Except for convection associated with tropical waves described above, scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is occurring east of 80W within 120 nm of the axis, between 99W and 102W within 60 nm of the axis, and between 125W and 128W within 60 nm south of the axis. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please read the Special Features section for more details about the Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning. Quiescent conditions are expected for the next several days over the Gulf of California. Tropical Storm Alvin is expected to not significantly impact the Mexican offshore zone, with moderate to fresh NW to N winds west of Cabo Corrientes and Baja California through at least Mon night. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... A large north to south pressure gradient across Central America is causing a Gulf of Papagayo gap wind event. These fresh to strong NE winds will diminish Sat night as the pressure gradient relaxes. Moderate offshore winds will prevail north of the monsoon trough, with moderate S-SW winds south of the trough axis the next few days. A S to SW long-period swell will reach the equatorial zone beginning on Sun and produce rough waves. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please read the Special Features section for more details about Tropical Storm Alvin. A broad weak ridge extends from high pressure NNW of the area. Gentle to moderate trades prevail south of the ridge. Seas are mainly 5-8 ft in mixed northerly and southerly swell. A low pressure area may develop in association with a tropical wave moving across the waters south of Central America this weekend, with a corresponding increase in winds and seas. Otherwise, a ridge will continue for several more days. Trades will strengthen slightly in the W central waters this weekend into early next week, with seas building to 8-10 ft, and SE swell along the equator will gradually decay. $$ Landsea