000 AXPZ20 KNHC 260841 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Wed Jun 26 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0830 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Depression One-E centered near 15.5N 108.3W at 26/0900 UTC moving W at 13 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. T.D. One-E is expected to become a minimal tropical storm as it moves WNW of the coast of Mexico, then diminish thereafter as it continues to the Revillagigedo Islands. Scattered moderate to strong convection is evident within 90 nm of the center. See latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave has an axis extending along 86W N of 05N into Nicaragua, moving W around 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is well west of the wave axis. A tropical wave has an axis along 127W from 03N to 13N, moving westward around 15 kt. Despite being in an area of deep layer moisture, no significant convection is evident near the wave. Scattered convection is west of the wave along the ITCZ axis. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from 08N78W to 10N86W to 08N94W to 14N103W then resumes SW of T.D. One-E near 11N110W to 08N117W to 09N123W. The ITCZ is from 10N128W to beyond 09N140W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is from 11N to 16N between 91W and 95W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 08N to 12N between 98W and 107W, and within 90 nm of the ITCZ axis west of 131W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... See the Special Features section above for details regarding TD One-E. A ridge axis extends southeast from high pressure centered NW of the area near 34N140W to near the Revillagigedo Islands. The pressure gradient on the east side of this ridge is supporting moderate NW winds over offshore waters west of Baja California Sur. Altimeter data shows wave heights in the range of 4 to 6 ft for the offshore waters of Mexico. Aside from the impact of TD One-E in the waters of southern Mexico, strong gap winds are possible in the Gulf of Tehuantepec tonight through Sat night, possibly peaking at minimal gale force Thu night and early Fri. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gentle to moderate winds will continue for most areas, although pulses of fresh to strong NE to E gap winds will impact the Papagayo region through Sat. A plume of gap winds could extend W from the Gulf of Papagayo to 100W by Fri evening. Seas within the plume are expected to range between 8 and 10 ft. Combined seas are mainly comprised of long period cross-equatorial S-SW swell. Altimeter data indicates wave heights are between 5 and 7 ft adjacent to Central America and along the coasts of Colombia and Ecuador. The long period swell will maintain combined seas near these heights in these areas for several more days. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... South of the high near 34N140W the pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure in the tropics is generating moderate northeast to east trades north of the ITCZ to about 20N and west of about 120W. Little change in the position of the high or the strength of trades is expected for several days. Wave heights in this area will generally run between 5 and 7 ft. Farther south, long-period cross-equatorial swell is maintaining wave heights around 8 ft south of 02N and west of 113W. As the swell energy continues to decay, the area of 8 ft seas will gradually shrink in coverage through Thu. A new set of southern hemisphere swell will cause seas south of 05N between 105W and 125W to build to between 7 and 9 ft by Sun evening. $$ Mundell