000 AXPZ20 KNHC 221002 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 701 UTC Sat Jun 22 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0840 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave extending across central Panama has an axis extending from 06N80W to 19N80W. This wave is moving west at 10-15 kt. More of the associated convection remains over northwestern Colombia. A tropical wave located south of Guatemala has an axis extending from 05N90W to 13N91W, moving west around 15 kt. Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection generally precedes the wave from 12N to 15N between 89W and 97W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection generally preceding the wave is found elsewhere from 08N to 15N between 89W and 100W. A tropical wave has an axis extending from 04N103W to 13N101W is moving westward around 20 kt. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are associated with this wave. A tropical wave with an axis extending from 03N116W to 13N113W is moving westward around 15 kt. This wave is embedded in a large area of scattered moderate and isolated strong convection occurring within 120 nm of the monsoon trough and ITCZ axis between 105W and 121W. A tropical wave with axis extending from 03N138W to 15N136W is moving westward around 20 kt. No significant convection is currently associated with this wave. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends W from low pres 1010 mb centered over NW Colombia near 10N75W to 07N80W to 10N98W to 07N117W to 07N120W. The ITCZ continues from 07N120W to 08N129W to 07N137W. Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is occurring within 90 nm of 06N78W. Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is present from 12N to 15N between 89W and 97W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is found elsewhere from 08N to 15N between 89W and 100W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is taking place within 150 nm of the monsoon trough and ITCZ axis between 105W and 121W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Strong low pressure over the SW United States is generating SW gap winds near gale force over the northern Gulf of California. Seas over the northern Gulf will generally range between 5 and 7 ft. Seas off the west coast of Baja California Norte will range between 6 and 8 ft. A tropical wave located S of Guatemala may spawn low pressure a few hundred miles SW of Acapulco. This system is expected to produce fresh to locally strong easterly winds and building seas for the Mexican offshore waters from S of Acapulco to S of Cabo Corrientes from Mon night through Wed night, as well as bring additional shower and thunderstorm activity to these waters. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gentle to moderate winds will continue for most areas, although pulses of fresh easterly gap winds will impact the Papagayo region through Tue, then winds could become strong Tue night. Seas are being dominated by long period S to SW swell from the southern hemisphere. Recent altimeter satellite passes indicated seas of 5 to 7 feet adjacent to Central America, with seas of 6 to 8 feet noted along the coasts of Colombia and Ecuador. The swell will maintain seas in these areas for at least the next several days. A pair of tropical waves will cross Central America this weekend, leading to locally higher waves and seas, along with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A 1034 mb high remains quasi-stationary well north of the area near 41N140W, with a ridge extending SE from the high to the Revillagigedo Islands. To the south of the high , northeast to east trades of 10 to 15 kt continue. Little change in the position of the high or the speed of trades is expected into early next week. A tighter gradient directly S of the high is supporting fresh NE to E winds N of the ITCZ and west of 125W, along with waveheights in the range of 6 to 8 ft in northerly swell. Much of the swell is being generated by persistent gale force winds off the coast of California. The focus of this swell will move east and gradually shrink in size this weekend. Farther south, long-period cross-equatorial swell is resulting in waveheights of 8 ft south of the Equator. This swell will be replaced by yet another set of S to SW swell this weekend that will bump waveheights up about a foot S of 10N. This swell will slowly subside Sun night through Tue. $$ CAM