000 AXPZ20 KNHC 220205 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0145 UTC Sat Jun 22 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0200 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is moving across central Panama and its axis extends along 80W off the coast of Colombia. This wave is moving west at 10-15 kt. More of the associated convection remains over northwestern Colombia. A tropical wave is located south of Honduras and El Salvador along 90W north of 05N, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is located ahead of the wave from 06N to 12N between 90W and 94W. A tropical wave with axis along 100W from 04N to 14N is moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is occurring from 06N to 12N between 95W and 103W. A tropical wave with axis along 115W from 04N to 13N is moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is occurring from 05N to 10N between 110W and 119W. A tropical wave with axis extending along 136W from 04N to 14N is moving westward at 15 kt. Convection associated with this wave generally diminished. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from northern Colombia across southern Costa Rica to 10N85W to 10N100W to 07N120W. The ITCZ stretches from 07N120W to 09N134W. No significant convection is occurring outside of the previously mentioned tropical waves. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Earlier scatterometer data and several recent ship observations indicate northwest wind of 10 to 15 kt occurring in offshore Mexico waters off and north of Michoacan. To the south, easterly winds of similar speed prevail. Low pressure over the southwestern United States has deepened over the last day or so, and this will lead to southwesterly gap winds near gale force in the northern Gulf of California. Seas will generally range in the 4 to 6 ft range, except off the west coast of Baja California Norte, where 6 to 8 ft seas will persist. A tropical wave located well southwest of the Gulf of Tehuantepec is producing numerous showers and thunderstorms along with locally gusty winds and higher seas in its vicinity. This wave will move west overnight, but another wave will pass through the area Saturday, producing similar marine conditions. Low pressure may form beginning early next week a few hundred miles southwest of the Tehuantepec region and along the outer offshore waters there. This is expected to produce fresh to locally strong easterly winds and building seas to the southeast Mexican offshore waters, and bring additional shower and thunderstorm activity to these waters. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gentle to moderate wind will continue through most areas, although pulses of fresh easterly gap winds will impact the Papagayo region during the overnights. Seas are being dominated by south and southwesterly swell from the southern hemisphere, and a 23 UTC altimeter satellite pass indicated seas of 5 to 7 feet across Central America, with seas of 7 to 9 feet off the coasts of Colombia and Ecuador. This swell will likely persist through Sunday. A pair of tropical waves will cross Central America this weekend, leading to locally higher waves and seas, along with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A 1032 mb high remains quasi-stationary well north of the area near 42N131W, with a ridge extending southeastward to the Revillagigedo Islands. To the south of the high pressure, northeast to east trades of 10-15 kt continue. Little change in the position of the high or the speed of trades is expected into early next week. A tighter gradient is allowing for northeast to east winds of 15-20 kt north of about 26N and west of 125W, along with waveheights in the range of 8-10 ft in northerly swell, indicated on recent scatterometer and altimeter passes. The swell is being generated by persistent gale force winds off the coast of California. The focus of this swell will move east and gradually shrink in size this weekend. Farther south, long-period cross-equatorial swell is resulting in waveheights of 8 ft south of about 10N. This swell will be replaced by yet another set of primarily southwest swell that will arrive on Sat bumping waveheights up about a foot. This swell will subside some late Sun into early Mon. $$ KONARIK