000 AXPZ20 KNHC 212104 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2008 UTC Fri Jun 21 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2000 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is moving across Central America and its axis extends along 79W off the coast of Colombia. This wave is moving west at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is ahead of this wave from 05N to 09N between 77W and 82W. A tropical wave is located south of Nicaragua and Honduras along 88W north of 05N, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is located ahead of the wave from 06N to 12N between 88W and 94W. A tropical wave with axis along 99W from 04N to 14N is moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is occurring ahead of this wave extend from 05N to 12N between 99W and 105W. A tropical wave with axis along 114W from 04N to 13N is moving westward near 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is occurring from 05N to 10N between 110W and 116W. A tropical wave with axis extending from 16N131W to 04N135W is moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 180 nm of this wave. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from northern Colombia across southern Costa Rica to 10N85W to 10N100W to just east of the tropical wave along 113W. The ITCZ stretches from 08N115W to 09N130W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Scatterometer data from 17 UTC depicted gentle to moderate northwest wind off offshore Mexican waters north of Manzanillo, except moderate southwest wind in the Gulf of California. South of Manzanillo, gentle to moderate easterly wind was occurring. 14-15 UTC altimeter satellite passes indicated seas of 4-6 ft, except 6-8 ft seas off the west coast of Baja California. Overall these winds and seas will continue through the weekend. However, low pressure over the southwestern United States will lead to near gale force gap winds in the northern Gulf of California tonight. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms along with gusty winds are possible over the extreme southern part of Mexican offshore waters on Sat as a tropical wave passes just south of the Tehuantepec area. Low pressure may form beginning early next week a few hundred miles southwest of the Tehuantepec region and along the outer offshore waters there. This is expected to produce fresh to locally strong easterly winds and building seas to the southeast Mexican offshore waters, and bring additional shower and thunderstorm activity to these waters. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gentle to moderate wind was indicated across the waters by 15z scatterometer passes. These winds will generally prevail, although the pressure gradient between high pressure north of the Caribbean and low pressure along the monsoon trough will lead to pulses of fresh to possibly strong gap winds during the overnights through the weekend in the Papagayo region. Seas are being dominated by southwesterly swell from the southern hemisphere, which will continue to support seas of 5 to 7 feet, as indicated by morning altimeter satellite passes. Off the coast of Ecuador, seas will at times build to 8 ft this weekend. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A 1032 mb high remains quasi-stationary well north of the area near 42N131W, with a ridge extending southeastward to the Revillagigedo islands. To the south of the high pressure, northeast to east trades of 10-15 kt continue. Little change in the position of the high or the speed of trades is expected into early next week . A tighter gradient is allowing for northeast to east winds of 15-20 kt north of about 26N and west of 125W, along with waveheights in the range of 8-10 ft in northerly swell, indicated on recent scatterometer and altimeter passes. The swell is being generated by persistent gale force winds off the coast of California. The focus of this swell will move east and gradually shrink in size this weekend. Farther south, long-period cross-equatorial swell is resulting in waveheights of 8 ft south of about 10N. This swell will be replaced by yet another set of primarily southwest swell that will arrive on Sat bumping waveheights up about a foot. This swell will subside some late Sun into early Mon. $$ KONARIK