000 AXPZ20 KNHC 171604 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Mon Jun 17 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1515 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave axis extends from 03N to 11N along 85W, moving W at 10-15 kt. No convection is associated with the wave at this time. A tropical wave axis extends from 02N to 14N along 113W, moving W at 15 kt. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is in the SE wave environment from 05N to 08N between 105W and 112W. Scattered moderate convection is elsewhere from 05N to 14N between 106W and 117W. A tropical wave axis extends from 02N to 14N along 125W, moving W at 5 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 08N to 14N between 120W and 126W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from 08N78W to 09N84W to 08N100W to 10N120W to 08N129W. The ITCZ begins near 08N130W and continues to 06N140W. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is from 05N to 09N between 93W and 98W, and from 05N to 08N between 105W and 112W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 06N to 14N between 113W and 126W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... The pressure gradient between a high pressure ridge west of Baja California and a low pressure trough along the Baja California peninsula is maintaining moderate northwest to north winds across most of the adjacent offshore waters where seas remain in the 4-5 ft range. Winds and seas off Baja California will change little through this evening as the ridge remains over offshore waters. Surface low pressure is expected to cover a rather expansive area over the southwestern United States and along California late today through Wed night as a sharpening mid to upper-level trough moves over those regions. This will weaken the ridge, thus diminishing the winds through Wed. Mainly gentle to moderate southwest to south winds are observed over the southern half of the Gulf of California. These wind speeds will expand to over the entire Gulf later today, then become light and variable on Tue through Wed evening. Moderate to fresh south to southwest winds will prevail over the far northern part of the Gulf through Wed when it will decrease to gentle and moderate speeds. Long-period southwest swell is across the Mexican offshore waters, however the seas will remain in the 5-6 ft range through Fri morning. Expect variable winds generally less than 15 kt across the waters between Las Tres Marias and Puerto Angel through the end of the week. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh offshore winds will continue to pulse to strong at night across the Gulf of Papagayo region through Wed, with seas peaking around 7-8 ft downstream of the Gulf. Otherwise, fairly tranquil conditions will persist off Central America under a weak pressure pattern. Gentle to moderate south to southwest flow along with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will prevail south of the monsoon trough through much of the upcoming week. Long-period southwest swell propagating through the southern waters will build the waveheights to 9 ft between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands through Tue. Wave model guidance suggests that new south to southwest swell will propagate through the southern waters west of 85W Tue night through Thu building waveheights there to a peak of 8 ft again before they begin to subside late on Thu. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A broad high pressure ridge prevails across the northern waters, centered on a 1027 mb high near 36N140W. Moderate to fresh northeast to east winds prevail north of the ITCZ and west of 120W. Latest altimeter data continue to show seas in the 5-7 ft range across most of this region. Moderate to fresh winds are expected to persist mainly south of 20N into early next week as a couple of weak tropical waves move westward and pass south of the ridge. A reinforcing long period southwest swell is propagating through the high seas areas with seas of 8 to 9 ft south of the Equator continuing through the middle of the week. Expect 8-9 ft seas south of the Equator and west of 100W by Tue. Elsewhere, northwest to north swell will propagate through the far northern waters west of about 125W beginning on tonight and continuing through Wed night as strong high pressure builds southward to the north of the area, while low pressure lingers offshore of California. Waveheights associated with the N swell will likely build to 8-10 ft north of 28N late Tue. $$ Ramos