000
AXPZ20 KNHC 161603
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Sun Jun 16 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave with axis along 107W from 03N to 13N is moving 
westward at 20 kt. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are from 
07N to 10N between 101W and 110W, and from 13N to 16N between 
98W and 107W. 

A tropical wave with axis along 125W from 05N to 14N is moving 
westward at about 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 
11N to 16N between 120W and 127W. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends from 09N84W to 10N100W to 
10N113W. The ITCZ extends from 10N113W to 11N124W, then resumes 
near 11N125W and continues along 10N136W to 08N140W. Numerous 
moderate and isolated strong convection is from 06N to 08N E of 
81W, and from 11N to 14N between 116W and 120W. Scattered 
moderate convection is from 13N to 16N between 98W and 105W, 
from 06N to 10N between 100W and 120W, and from 07N to 15N W of 
130W.  

...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... 

The pressure gradient between a high pressure ridge west of Baja 
California and a low pressure trough along the Baja California 
peninsula is maintaining moderate northwest to north winds 
across most of the adjacent offshore waters where seas remain in 
the 4-5 ft range. Winds and seas off Baja California will change
little through early on Mon as the ridge remains over offshore 
waters. However, winds will increase to fresh speeds near the 
coast during the evening hours through Sun night mainly in the 
region between Punta Eugenia and Cabo San Lazaro. Low pressure 
is expected to cover a rather expansive area over the 
southwestern United States and along California by late Mon 
afternoon in response to a sharpening mid/upper-level trough 
that will pass over those regions. This will result in the 
weakening of the ridge allowing for wind to briefly diminish 
through middle part of the upcoming week.

Mainly gentle southwest to south winds prevail over the southern 
half of the Gulf of California. These winds will increase to 
gentle to moderate southeast to south winds over the entire Gulf 
tonight through Mon. These winds then become light and variable 
on Tue and through Wed evening. Winds will increase to fresh 
speeds over the far northern part of the Gulf Mon night before 
diminishing to moderate speeds early on Tue. 

Long-period southwest swell is along the Mexican offshore 
waters, however the seas will remain in the 5-6 ft range through 
the middle of the upcoming week.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to strong nocturnal offshore winds will continue pulsing 
across the Gulf of Papagayo region through the middle part of
the upcoming week, with seas peaking around 7-8 ft downstream of
the Gulf. Otherwise, fairly tranquil conditions will persist off
Central America under a weak pressure pattern. Gentle to 
moderate south to southwest flow with scattered showers and 
thunderstorms will prevail south of the monsoon trough through 
Sun night and early into next next week. 

Long-period southwest swell propagating through the southern 
waters will build the waveheights to 9 ft between Ecuador and 
the Galapagos Islands through the remainder of this weekend. 
Wave model guidance suggests that another set of south to 
southwest swell will propagate through the southern waters west 
of 85W Tue night through Thu building waveheights there to a 
peak of 8 ft again before they begin to subside late on Thu. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA... 

A high pressure ridge prevails across the northern waters. 
Moderate to fresh northeast winds are between the ridge and the 
ITCZ west of 116W. Latest altimeter data continue to show seas 
in the 5-7 ft range in this region. Moderate to fresh winds are 
expected to persist mainly south of 20N into early next week as 
a couple of tropical waves moves south of the ridge.

Long period southwest swell will continue to propagate through 
high seas areas east of 120W through tonight. Seas will remain 8 
to 9 ft south of the Equator through the middle of the upcoming 
week, as a reinforcing set of southwest swell is expected to 
reach the far southwestern waters by Mon night. Expect 8-9 ft 
seas south of the Equator and west of 100W by Tue. Elsewhere, 
northwest to north swell will impact the far northern waters 
west of about 125W beginning on Mon night and continuing through 
Wed night as strong high pressure builds southward to the north 
of the area and while low pressure lingers offshore California. 
Waveheights associated with the swell will likely build to 8-10 
ft north of 28N.

$$
Ramos