857 AXPZ20 KNHC 150943 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Sat Jun 15 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is near 98W-99W moving west around 10 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted within 150 nm of the Mexican coast between 92.5W AND 102W, and has been diminishing in areal coverage the past few hours. A tropical wave is near 117W moving west at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 12N to 14N between 111W and 119W. A tropical wave is near 136W moving west at 10-15 kt. Isolated weak convection is noted within 120 nm of the wave. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N74W TO 11N95W TO 10.5N118W TO 09.5N126W. The ITCZ extends from 09.5N126W TO 08N135W, then resumes from 07N137W to beyond 06N140W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is occurring from 01N to 09N east of 82W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted within 90 nm S and 180 nm N of the trough and ITCZ between 111W and 134W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... The pressure gradient between a high pressure ridge west of Baja California and a low pressure trough along the Baja California peninsula is maintaining moderate N to NW wind flow across most of the adjacent offshore waters. Overnight scatterometer data showed moderate to fresh N-NW winds across the waters north of Punta Eugenia, while seas were generally 4-5 ft based on earlier altimeter data. Winds and seas off Baja California will remain relatively unchanged through Mon as the ridge persists offshore. Winds will pulse to fresh speeds near the coast during the evening hours through Sun night, especially between Punta Eugenia and Cabo San Lazaro. An upper level low or trough will induce weak surface low pressure off the southern California coast on Tue, which will weaken the ridge and allow offshore wind speeds to briefly diminish by mid week. Elsewhere, overnight scatterometer data indicated moderate S to SSW winds occurring over most of the Gulf of California. Winds will freshen again today over the central Gulf as a low pressure trough persists near Baja California, then diminish by Sun and remain gentle through early next week. Long period SW swell will reach the Mexican offshore waters late today, but seas are expected to remain in the 5-6 ft range through the middle of next week. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong nocturnal offshore winds will continue pulsing across the Gulf of Papagayo region through the middle of next week, with seas peaking around 7-8 ft downstream of the Gulf. Otherwise, fairly tranquil conditions will persist off Central America under a weak pressure pattern. Gentle to moderate S to SW flow with scattered showers and thunderstorms will prevail south of the monsoon trough through the weekend and early next week. Long period SW swell will propagate NE across the southern waters tonight and Sat, and seas will build to 8 ft between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands through the weekend. Another round of S to SW swell will move into the southern waters Tue night, once again resulting in 8 ft seas off the coast of Ecuador. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A high pressure ridge dominates the northern waters tonight, and recent scatterometer data showed moderate to fresh NE winds south of the ridge between 22N and the ITCZ west of 125W. Seas in this region are generally 5-8 ft based on the latest altimeter data. Moderate to locally fresh trades are expected to persist mainly south of 20N through the weekend and early next week. Long period SW swell will continue moving NE across the high seas east of 125W this weekend. Seas will remain 8 ft or greater south of the Equator through the middle of next week, as reinforcing SW swell is expected to reach the far SW waters by Mon night. Expect 8-10 ft seas south of the Equator and west of 100W by Tue. Elsewhere, NW to N swell will impact the far northern waters west of 125W Mon night through Wed night with seas likely building to 8-10 ft north of 28N. $$ Stripling