000 AXPZ20 KNHC 150215 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0215 UTC Sat Jun 15 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0200 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is near 96W moving west around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 13N to 16N between 94W and 97W. A tropical wave is near 115W moving west around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 12N to 14N between 110W and 117W. A tropical wave is near 134W moving west around 10 kt. Isolated weak convection is noted within 120 nm of the wave. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from Panama near 08N78W to 09N85W to 13N94W to 10N119W. The ITCZ extends from 10N119W to 08N132W, then resumes from 07N135W to beyond 05N140W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring within 60 nm of the monsoon trough east of 80W, from 12N to 14N between 110W and 117W, and within 180 nm north of the ITCZ between 123W and 129W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... The pressure gradient between a high pressure ridge west of Baja California and a low pressure trough along the Baja California peninsula maintains NW flow across the adjacent offshore waters. Earlier scatterometer data showed gentle to moderate NW to N winds across the waters north of Cabo San Lazaro, while seas were generally 4-5 ft based on earlier altimeter data. Winds and seas off Baja California will remain relatively unchanged through Mon as the ridge persists offshore. Winds will pulse to fresh speeds near the coast during the evening hours through Sun night, especially between Punta Eugenia and Cabo San Lazaro. An upper level low or trough will induce weak surface low pressure off the southern California coast on Tue, which will weaken the ridge and allow offshore wind speeds to briefly diminish by mid week. Elsewhere, earlier scatterometer data indicated fresh SE winds were occurring over the central Gulf of California, with moderate SE flow noted in the northern Gulf. Winds will reach fresh speeds again on Sat over the central Gulf as a low pressure trough persists near Baja California, then diminish by Sun and remain gentle through early next week. Long period SW swell will reach the Mexican offshore waters on Sat, but seas are expected to remain less than 8 ft through the middle of next week. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong nocturnal offshore winds will continue pulsing across the Gulf of Papagayo region through the middle of next week, with seas peaking around 7-8 ft downstream of the Gulf. Otherwise, fairly tranquil conditions will persist off Central America under a weak pressure pattern. Gentle to moderate S to SW flow with scattered showers and thunderstorms will prevail south of the monsoon trough through the weekend and early next week. Long period SW swell will propagate NE across the southern waters tonight and Sat, and seas will build to 8 ft between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands through the weekend. Another round of S to SW swell will move into the southern waters Tue night, once again resulting in 8 ft seas off the coast of Ecuador. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A high pressure ridge dominates the northern waters tonight, and earlier scatterometer data showed moderate to fresh NE winds between the ridge and the ITCZ west of 120W. Seas in this region are generally 5-7 ft based on the latest altimeter data. Moderate to locally fresh trades are expected to persist mainly south of 20N through the weekend and early next week. Long period SW swell will continue moving NE across the high seas east of 125W this weekend. Seas will remain 8 ft or greater south of the Equator through the middle of next week, as reinforcing SW swell is expected to reach the far SW waters by Mon night. Expect 8-10 ft seas south of the Equator and west of 100W by Tue. Elsewhere, NW to N swell will impact the far northern waters west of 125W Mon night through Wed night with seas likely building to 8-10 ft north of 28N. $$ Reinhart