000 AXPZ20 KNHC 142130 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2130 UTC Fri Jun 14 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is near 94W moving west around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 13N to 15N between 93W and 95W. A tropical wave is near 113W moving west around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 12N to 14N between 113W and 116W. A tropical wave is near 133W moving west around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 10N to 12N between 125W and 131W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from Panama near 08N78W to 09N85W to 13N94W to 10N119W. The ITCZ extends from 10N119W to 08N131W, then resumes from 07N134W to beyond 05N140W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring from 05N to 07N east of 84W, within 240 nm north of the monsoon trough between 96W and 108W, and within 120 nm south of the ITCZ between 120W and 127W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... The pressure gradient between a high pressure ridge west of Baja California and a low pressure trough along the Baja California peninsula maintains NW flow across the adjacent offshore waters. Recent scatterometer data shows gentle to moderate NW to N winds across the waters north of Cabo San Lazaro. 18Z altimeter data across the Baja California Sur waters reveals seas are running in the 4-5 ft range. Winds and seas off Baja California will remain relatively unchanged through Mon as the ridge persists offshore. Winds will pulse to fresh speeds near the coast during the evening hours through Sun night, especially between Punta Eugenia and Cabo San Lazaro. An upper level low or trough will induce weak surface low pressure off the southern California coast on Tue, which will weaken the ridge and allow offshore wind speeds to diminish through mid week. Elsewhere, scatterometer data between 16Z-18Z indicates fresh SE winds are occurring over the central Gulf of California, with moderate SE flow prevailing in the northern Gulf. Winds will reach fresh speeds again on Sat over the central Gulf as a low pressure trough persists near Baja California, then diminish by Sun and remain gentle through early next week. The earlier gap wind event over the Gulf of Tehuantepec has diminished, as recent scatterometer data depicted moderate to fresh winds in the area. Long period SW swell will reach the Mexican offshore waters by Sat, but seas are expected to remain less than 8 ft through early next week. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong nocturnal offshore winds will continue pulsing across the Gulf of Papagayo region through the middle of next week, with seas peaking around 7-8 ft downstream of the Gulf. Otherwise, fairly tranquil conditions will persist off Central America under a weak pressure pattern. Gentle to moderate S to SW flow with scattered showers and thunderstorms will prevail south of the monsoon trough through the weekend and early next week. Long period SW swell will reach the southern waters tonight, and seas will build to 8 ft between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands over the weekend. Another round of S to SW swell will move into the southern waters Tue night, once again resulting in seas to 8 ft. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A 1022 mb high pressure center near 28.5N135W maintains a ridge across the northern waters. The pressure gradient between the ridge and the ITCZ supports fresh NE winds from 12N to 17N between 126W and 130W based on 18Z scatterometer data. A 16Z altimeter pass along 129W shows seas to 8 ft within these fresh trades. Moderate to locally fresh trades are expected to persist mainly south of 20N through the weekend and into early next week. A small area of seas to 8 ft across the far western portion is expected to subside tonight. Long period SW swell will continue moving NE across much of the region east of 125W this weekend. Seas will remain 8 ft or greater south of the Equator through the middle of next week, as reinforcing SW swell is expected to reach the far SW waters by Mon night. Expect 8-10 ft seas south of the Equator and west of 100W by Tue. Elsewhere, NW swell will impact the far northern waters west of 125W Mon night through Tue night with seas likely building to 8-10 ft. $$ Reinhart