000 AXPZ20 KNHC 141557 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Fri Jun 14 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1430 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is near 93W extending from southern Mexico southward to near 06N, moving west at 15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted about the wave from 06.5N to the coasts between 93W and 100W. A tropical wave is near 109W moving west at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 11N to 16N between 100W and 110W. A tropical wave is near 132W moving west at 10 kt. Isolated moderate convection is from 06N to 13N between 123W and 133W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 08N81W to 12N92W to 11N109W to 10N118W where it transitions to ITCZ, which continues to 08N130W. The ITCZ then resumes from 05.5N133W to beyond 04N140W. Scattered moderate convection and isolated tstms are N of 04N E of 84W. Scattered moderate convection is from 08N to 16N between 93W and 113W, from 07N to 13N between 116W and 130W, and within 60 NM either side of the ITCZ W of 133W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... The pressure gradient between a high pressure ridge west of Baja California and a low pressure trough along the Baja California Peninsula maintains gentle to moderate NW to N wind flow across most of the waters off the Baja California coast. Altimeter data continue to show seas ranging from 4-5 ft in this region. Winds and seas off Baja California will remain relatively unchanged through Mon as the ridge persists offshore. Winds will pulse to fresh speeds during the evening hours near the coast through Sun night, especially between Cabo San Lazaro and Punta Eugenia. Light to gentle winds are expected Tue and Wed as the center of high pressure drifts northward, thus reducing the pressure gradient across the area. A brief period of fresh to strong SE to S winds is expected to occur over the northern Gulf of California this afternoon continuing to the early evening hours. A surface trough along the Baja California peninsula will maintain moderate to fresh S to SE flow across the central and southern Gulf of California through Sat night. Winds in this region will diminish to gentle to moderate Sun and prevail through Mon. Strong northerly gap winds over the Gulf of Tehuantepec with 8 ft seas will diminish this afternoon. New long period SW swell will reach the Mexican offshore waters by Sat, but seas are expected to remain less than 8 ft through early next week. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong nocturnal offshore winds across the Gulf of Papagayo region will continue through the middle of next week with seas peaking at 7 to 8 ft downstream of the gulf. Otherwise, fairly tranquil conditions will persist off Central America under a weak pressure pattern. Gentle to moderate S to SW flow with scattered showers and thunderstorms will prevail south of the monsoon trough during the weekend into Wed. New long period SW swell will begin to reach the southern waters tonight, and build to near 8 ft between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands over the weekend, then briefly subside early next week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A high pressure ridge extends southeastward from a 1023 mb high near 36N140W southward and then southeastward across the northern waters to just southwest of the Revillagigedo Islands. The pressure gradient between the ridge and the ITCZ supports a small area of fresh winds from 05N to 13N to the W of 138W, where seas are 8 ft. Elsewhere moderate to locally fresh trades will persist between 20N and the ITCZ through the weekend and into early next week. Seas are expected to subside below 8 ft across this west portion tonight. New long period SW swell moving into the far SW waters will propagate NE across the region through the weekend. Seas will build to 8 ft or greater south of the Equator today and persist through the weekend. Reinforcing SW swell is expected to reach the far SW waters by Mon night, resulting in 8-10 ft seas south of the Equator and west of 100W through early next week. Elsewhere, NW swell will impact the far northern waters west of 125W Mon night through Tue night with seas expected to build to 8-9 ft. $$ Ramos