000 AXPZ20 KNHC 141010 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Fri Jun 14 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along about 92W extending from Guatemala southward to near 06N, moving west at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted about the wave from 06.5N to the coasts between 89W and 98W. A tropical wave is near 108W moving west at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 12N to 14.5N between 104W and 112.5W. A tropical wave is near 131W moving west near 15 kt. No significant convection is associated with this wave. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09.5N74.5W TO 09N82W TO 11.5N91.5W TO 12N110W TO 10N118W, where it transitions to ITCZ, continuing on to 09N129W, then resumes from 05.5N133W to beyond 05N140W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is occurring from 04.5N to 08N east of 83W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is within 150 nm N and 240 nm S of the trough between 87W and 112W, and within 120 nm either side of the ITCZ between 116W and 123W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... The pressure gradient between a high pressure ridge west of Baja California and a low pressure trough along the Baja California Peninsula maintains gentle to moderate NW to N wind flow across most of the waters off the Baja California coast, except 15-20 kt within 90 nm of the coast of Baja California norte, as captured by 0400 UTC scatterometer data. Altimeter data from several hours ago indicated seas were running 4-6 ft in this region. Winds and seas off Baja California will remain relatively unchanged through early next week as the ridge persists offshore. Winds will pulse to fresh speeds during the evening hours near the coast through Sat night, especially north of Cabo San Lazaro. A brief period of fresh to strong SW to W gap winds is occurring over the northern Gulf of California tonight but will diminish by morning. A surface trough along the Baja California peninsula will maintain moderate to fresh S to SE flow across the central and southern Gulf of California through Fri. Winds in this region are expected to diminish to gentle to moderate by Fri evening as the trough weakens. Strong northerly gap winds have begin to develop tonight northward of 15N over the Gulf of Tehuantepec and will spread SW and extend farther downstream overnight, then gradually begin to diminish through Fri night. Seas are expected to briefly build to 8 ft by around sunrise this morning before falling to 6-7 ft this afternoon. New long period SW swell will reach the Mexican offshore waters by Sat, but seas are expected to remain less than 8 ft through early next week. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Nocturnal offshore winds will increase to fresh to strong speeds across the Gulf of Papagayo region through early next week, peaking in strength during the late night and early morning hours with the assistance nocturnal drainage flow. Seas will peak at 7 to near 8 ft downstream of the Gulf of Papagayo with each pulsing event. Otherwise, fairly tranquil conditions will persist off Central America under a weak pressure pattern. Gentle to moderate S to SW flow with scattered showers and thunderstorms will prevail south of the monsoon trough for the next several days. New long period SW swell will begin to reach the southern waters late Fri night, and build to near 8 ft between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands over the weekend, then briefly subside early next week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A high pressure ridge extends southeastward from a 1025 mb high near 41N135W southward and then southeastward across the northern waters to just south of the Revillagigedo Islands. The pressure gradient between the ridge and a weak trough west of the area was producing a small area of fresh winds from 06N to 17N to the W of 127W, where seas are 7 to 8 ft based on recent altimeter data. Elsewhere moderate to locally fresh trades will persist between 20N and the ITCZ through the weekend and into early next week. Seas are expected to subside below 8 ft across this west portion by Sat. New long period SW swell moving into the far SW waters will propagate NE across the region through the weekend. Seas will build to 8 ft or greater south of the Equator today and persist through the weekend. Reinforcing SW swell is expected to reach the far SW waters by Mon night, resulting in 8-10 ft seas south of the Equator and west of 100W through early next week. Elsewhere, NW swell will impact the far northern waters west of 125W Mon night through Tue night with seas expected to build to 8-9 ft. $$ Stripling