000 AXPZ20 KNHC 140218 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0218 UTC Fri Jun 14 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0200 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is near 91W extending from Guatemala southward to near 06N, moving west at around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 60 nm of the wave north of 13N. A tropical wave is near 106W moving west at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 10N to 12N between 103W and 106W. A tropical wave is near 130W moving west at around 10 kt. No significant convection is associated with this wave. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from Costa Rica near 09N84W to 12N94W to 11N100W to 12N110W to 10N118W. The ITCZ extends from 10N118W to 07N129W, then resumes from 05N132W to 05N140W. Scattered strong convection is noted north of 11N between 86W and 88W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring within 90 nm north of the monsoon trough between 108W and 112W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... The pressure gradient between a high pressure ridge west of Baja California and a low pressure trough over the Gulf of California maintains gentle to moderate NW flow off the Baja California coast. Earlier scatterometer data showed moderate NW winds off Baja California Norte and SW of Punta Eugenia, and earlier altimeter data indicated seas were running 4-6 ft in this region. Winds and seas off Baja California will remain relatively unchanged through early next week as the ridge persists offshore. Winds will pulse to fresh speeds during the evening hours near the coast through Sat night, especially north of Cabo San Lazaro. Strong northerly gap winds will develop tonight over the Gulf of Tehuantepec and continue into Fri night, as the pressure gradient tightens in response to high pressure over the northern Gulf of Mexico. A brief period of fresh to strong SW to W gap winds is expected over the northern Gulf of California tonight. Earlier scatterometer data depicted moderate SE winds over the central and southern Gulf of California. A surface trough near the Baja California peninsula will maintain moderate to fresh SE flow across the central and southern Gulf of California through Fri. Winds in this region are expected to diminish to gentle to moderate speeds by Fri evening as the trough weakens. A new set of long period SW swell will reach the Mexican offshore waters by Sat, but seas are expected to remain less than 8 ft through early next week. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Nocturnal offshore flow will pulse to fresh to strong speeds in the Gulf of Papagayo through early next week. The strongest winds will occur during the late night and early morning hours with the nocturnal drainage flow. Seas will peak near 8 ft downstream of the Gulf of Papagayo with each pulsing event. Otherwise, fairly tranquil conditions will persist off Central America under a weak pressure pattern. Gentle to moderate S to SW flow with scattered showers and thunderstorms will prevail south of the monsoon trough for the next several days. A new set of long period SW swell will reach the southern waters late Fri night. Seas will build to 8 ft between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands over the weekend, then briefly subside early next week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A high pressure ridge extends southeastward from near 30N140W across the northern waters toward the Revillagigedo Islands. The pressure gradient between the ridge and a weak trough west of the area was producing a small area of fresh winds with seas to 8 ft based on earlier scatterometer and altimeter data. Generally moderate to locally fresh trades will persist through the weekend and into early next week, while seas are expected to subside below 8 ft by Sat. A new set of long period SW swell moving into the far SW waters will propagate NE across the region through the weekend. Seas will build to 8 ft or greater south of the Equator by Fri and persist through the weekend. A reinforcing set of SW swell is expected to reach the far SW waters by Mon night, resulting in 8-10 ft seas south of the Equator and west of 100W through early next week. Elsewhere, NW swell will impact the far northern waters west of 125W Mon night through Tue night with seas expected to build to 8-9 ft. $$ Reinhart