000 AXPZ20 KNHC 131602 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Thu Jun 13 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1430 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is near 88W extending from Honduras southward to near 06N, moving west at around 20 kt. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are N of 06N between 83W and 91W. A tropical wave is near 104W moving west at around 20 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is from 05N to 15N between 100W and 110W. A tropical wave is near 128W moving west at around 15 kt. Only isolated to scattered showers are from 04N to 10N between 122W and 132W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from Costa Rica near 10N85W to 11N95W to 10N114W to 07N121W. The ITCZ extends from 07N121W to 06N127W, then resumes from 05N129W to 04N140W. Scattered heavy showers and isolated tstms are from 07N to 15N between 90W and 100W, and from 06N to 12N between 112W and 122W. Scattered moderate convection is north of 03N east of 83W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A high pressure ridge west of Baja California continue to support gentle to moderate NW winds off the coast of Baja California. This ridge will persist through the middle of next week with, leading to the continuation of the current conditions offshore. Winds may pulse to fresh speeds during the evening hours near the coast, especially between Punta Eugenia and Cabo San Lazaro through Sunday. Strong northerly gap winds are expected this evening over the Gulf of Tehuantepec continuing through Fri night as high pressure builds into the northern Gulf of Mexico and tightens the pressure gradient. Fresh SW to W gap winds will develop over the northern Gulf of California tonight into early Fri. A surface trough along the Baja California peninsula today through Sat will support fresh SE flow across the central and southern Gulf of California. Winds in this region are expected to diminish to moderate by Sat evening as the trough weakens. A new set of long period SW swell will reach the Mexican offshore waters this weekend, however seas are expected to remain less than 8 ft. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Nocturnal offshore flow will pulse to fresh to strong speeds in the Gulf of Papagayo through the middle of next week. The strongest winds will occur during the late night and early morning hours with the nocturnal drainage flow when seas are expected to build to 8 ft. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate S to SW flow with scattered showers and thunderstorms will prevail south of the monsoon trough for the next several days. Otherwise, fairly tranquil conditions will persist off Central America under a weak pressure pattern. A new set of long period SW swell will reach the southern waters late Fri night with seas building to 8 ft between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands over the weekend. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A high pressure ridge prevails across the northern waters from near 30N140W southeastward to just west of the Baja California offshore waters. A surface trough just west of 140W is tightening the pressure gradient south of the ridge, and earlier altimeter data showed seas to 8 ft from 13N to 15N west of 138W associated with this feature. The surface trough will continue moving westward over the next couple days, but persistent moderate to locally fresh trades will maintain 8 ft seas over the waters west of 137W through Fri evening. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds prevail across much of the high seas domain. Little change in the overall pattern is expected through Wed, and winds are expected to remain 20 kt or less across the high seas. A new set of long period SW swell will reach the far SW waters tonight, then propagate NE across the region through the weekend. Seas will build to 8 ft or greater south of the Equator by Fri and persist through the weekend. A reinforcing set of SW swell could reach the far SW waters by Mon night, resulting in 8-9 ft seas south of the Equator and west of 110W. $$ Ramos