000 AXPZ20 KNHC 130226 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0226 UTC Thu Jun 13 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0200 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is near 85W extending from Central America southward to near 05N, moving west at around 15 kt. Scattered strong convection is within 90 nm of the wave from 07N to 09N with additional convection inland. A tropical wave is near 101.5W moving west at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 180 nm west of the wave axis from 08N to 12N. A tropical wave is near 127W moving west at around 15 kt. Only isolated to scattered showers are noted with this wave. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from Panama near 08N78W to 09N85W to 07N95W to 10N106W to 09N115W. The ITCZ extends from 09N115W to 06N125W to beyond 06N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 120 nm south of the monsoon trough between 92W and 94W, within 120 nm north of the monsoon trough between 95W and 98W, and within 180 nm south of the monsoon trough between 102W and 114W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A high pressure ridge west of Baja California is supporting gentle to moderate NW winds off the coast of Baja California Sur per earlier scatterometer data. This ridge will persist through the weekend and into early next week with gentle to moderate NW flow prevailing offshore. Winds may pulse to fresh speeds during the evening hours near the coast, especially between Punta Eugenia and Cabo San Lazaro. Gap winds have briefly diminished over the Gulf of Tehuantepec tonight. Strong northerly winds are expected in the Gulf of Tehuantepec Thu into Fri as high pressure builds into the northern Gulf of Mexico and tightens the pressure gradient. Fresh SW to W gap winds will develop over the northern Gulf of California Thu night. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate SE to S flow will prevail over the central and southern Gulf of California into early next week. A new set of long period SW swell will reach the southern Mexican offshore waters this weekend, but seas are expected to remain less than 8 ft. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Nocturnal offshore flow will pulse to fresh to strong speeds in the Gulf of Papagayo through the weekend and into early next week. The strongest winds will occur during the late night and early morning hours with the nocturnal drainage flow. Seas will build to 8 ft on Fri and Fri night as strong NE flow prevails across the Gulf. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate SW flow with scattered showers and thunderstorms will prevail south of the monsoon trough for the next several days. Otherwise, fairly tranquil conditions will persist off Central America under a weak pressure pattern. A new set of long period SW swell will reach the southern waters late Fri night with seas building to 8 ft between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands over the weekend. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A high pressure ridge extends across the northern waters from near 30N140W southeastward to near the Revillagigedo Islands. A surface trough just west of 140W is tightening the pressure gradient south of the ridge, and earlier scatterometer data showed fresh winds associated with this feature from 13N to 17N west of 136W. The surface trough will continue moving westward over the next couple days, but persistent moderate to locally fresh trades will maintain 8 ft seas over the waters near 140W through Fri evening. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds prevail across much of the high seas domain. A 19Z altimeter pass showed 3-5 ft seas north of 20N and west of Baja California, with 4-7 ft seas south of 20N within the gentle to moderate trade winds. Little change in the overall pattern is expected through Mon, and winds are expected to remain 20 kt or less across the high seas. A new set of long period SW swell will reach the far SW waters Thu night, then propagate NE across the region through the weekend. Seas will build to 8 ft or greater south of the Equator by Fri and persist through the weekend. A reinforcing set of SW swell could reach the far SW waters by Mon night, resulting in 8-9 ft seas south of the Equator and west of 110W. $$ Reinhart