000 AXPZ20 KNHC 122125 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2125 UTC Wed Jun 12 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is near 100W moving west at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted within 120 nm of the wave from 06N to 13N. A tropical wave is near 125W moving west at around 15 kt. Only scattered showers and weak convection are noted with this wave. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from Costa Rica near 11N86W to 09N100W to 11N110W to 09N115W. The ITCZ extends from 09N115W to 06N124W, then continues from 06N126W to beyond 06N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to 09N between 82W and 87W, within 120 nm of the monsoon trough between 91W and 96W, and within 180 nm of the monsoon trough between 101W and 110W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Winds over the Gulf of Tehuantepec have diminished this afternoon as the pressure gradient has relaxed over the region. Associated seas have subsided below 8 ft. A strong Tehuantepec gap wind event is expected Thu into Fri as high pressure builds into the northern Gulf of Mexico and tightens the pressure gradient. A high pressure ridge west of Baja California will maintain mainly gentle to moderate NW winds over the offshore waters through the upcoming weekend. Winds may pulse to fresh speeds during the evening hours near the coast, especially between Punta Eugenia and Cabo San Lazaro. Fresh SW to W gap winds will develop over the northern Gulf of California Thu night. Otherwise, gentle to moderate SE to S flow will prevail over the central and southern Gulf of California into early next week. A new set of long period SW swell will reach the southern Mexican offshore waters this weekend, but seas are expected to remain less than 8 ft. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Nocturnal offshore flow will pulse to fresh to strong speeds in the Gulf of Papagayo through the weekend and into early next week. The strongest winds will occur during the late night and early morning hours with the nocturnal drainage flow. Seas will build to 8 ft on Fri and Fri night when the strongest winds are expected. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate SW flow will prevail south of the monsoon trough for the next several days. Otherwise, fairly tranquil conditions will persist off Central America under a weak pressure pattern. A new set of long period SW swell will reach the southern waters late Fri night with seas building to 8 ft between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands over the weekend. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A high pressure ridge extends across the northern waters from near 30N140W southeastward to near the Revillagigedo Islands. A weak surface trough is analyzed just west of 140W, and the enhanced pressure gradient between this trough and the ridge is producing fresh NE to E winds from 13N to 17N west of 136W per 1830Z scatterometer data. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds prevail across the high seas domain. Little change in the overall pattern is expected through Mon. The surface trough will continue moving westward over the next couple days, but persistent moderate to locally fresh trades will maintain seas near 8 ft over the waters west of about 136W into Fri evening. A new set of long period SW swell will reach the far SW waters by Thu night, then propagate NE across the region through the upcoming weekend. Seas will build to 8 ft or greater south of the Equator by Fri and persist through the weekend. A reinforcing set of SW swell could reach the far SW waters by Mon night, resulting in 8-10 ft seas south of the Equator and west of 110W. $$ Reinhart