000 AXPZ20 KNHC 121603 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Wed Jun 12 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1515 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is near 97W/98W moving west at around 10 kt. Nearby convection is described below. A tropical wave is near 122W moving west at around 10 kt. Nearby convection is described below. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from Costa Rica near 09N84W to 08N93W to 10N109W to 09N111W. The ITCZ continues from 09N111W to 07N120W, then resumes near 06N123W to 05N130W to 06N139W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is from 04N to 15N east of 107W. Scattered moderate convection is from 04N to 13N between 110W and 120W, within 210 nm either side of the ITCZ west of 123W, and from 12N to 15N between 134W and 140W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... The pressure gradient between a surface ridge along central and eastern Mexico and low pressure associated with a tropical wave near 98W is forcing fresh gap winds over the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Seas peak near 8 ft in NE wind waves and SW swell. Winds and seas in Tehuantepec will further diminish by early this afternoon, however will strengthen again Thu into Fri morning as high pressure builds into the northern Gulf of Mexico and tightens the pressure gradient. A high pressure ridge west of Baja California will maintain mainly gentle to moderate NW winds over the offshore waters through the upcoming weekend. Winds may pulse to fresh speeds during the evening hours near the coast, especially between Punta Eugenia and Cabo San Lazaro. Winds over the Gulf of California will generally remain light to gentle due to a weak pressure gradient for the next several days, with the exception of fresh to strong SW to W gap winds north of 29N Thu night through Fri morning. A new set of long period SW swell will reach the southern Mexican offshore waters this weekend, but seas are expected to remain less than 8 ft. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Nocturnal offshore flow will pulse to fresh to strong speeds in the Gulf of Papagayo through the weekend. The strongest winds will occur during the late night and early morning hours with the nocturnal drainage flow. Otherwise, fairly tranquil conditions will persist off Central America through the next several days under a weak pressure pattern. Gentle to moderate SW winds will prevail south of the monsoon trough. A new set of long period SW swell will reach the southern waters on Sat with seas likely building to 8 ft between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands Sat night through Sun night. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure surface ridging prevails across the northern waters with an axis extending southeastward from near 30N140W to just west of the Revillagigedo Islands. Generally moderate trade winds persist between 20N and the ITCZ west of 110W. Locally fresh winds are from 13N to 17N W of 130W associated with a surface trough just west of 140W. This feature will continue to support fresh winds and combined seas to 8 ft into Fri evening as it continues to track westward. Otherwise, little change in winds or seas is expected through Mon. A new set of long period SW swell will reach the far SW waters by Thu night, then propagate NE across the region through the upcoming weekend. Seas are expected to build to 8 ft or greater just south of the Equator by Fri and persist through the weekend. $$ Ramos