000 AXPZ20 KNHC 120223 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0223 UTC Wed Jun 12 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0200 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A weak tropical wave is near 96W moving west at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is occurring within 180 nm east of the wave from 07N to 11N. A weak tropical wave is near 119W/120W moving west at 15 kt. Only isolated to scattered showers are noted with this feature. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from Panama near 09N79W to 08N90W to 10N106W. The ITCZ extends from 10N106W to 07N119W, then continues from 07N120W to 07N128W to 11N137W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring within 150 nm of the monsoon trough between 87W and 92W, from 10N to 14N between 98W and 101W, and within 120 nm south of the monsoon trough between 103W and 106W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... The pressure gradient between a surface ridge over eastern Mexico and low pressure associated with the monsoon trough is forcing strong to near gale force gap winds over the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Earlier scatterometer data showed a swath of strong N to NE winds in the Gulf. Combined seas peak near 9 ft in NE wind waves and S swell, while 8 ft seas likely extend well downstream of the Gulf. The Tehuantepec gap winds will diminish by Wed afternoon, then strengthen again Thu into early Fri as high pressure builds into the northern Gulf of Mexico and tightens the pressure gradient. A persistent high pressure ridge west of Baja California will maintain gentle to moderate NW winds over the offshore waters through the upcoming weekend. Winds may pulse to fresh speeds during the evening hours near the coast, especially south of Punta Eugenia. Winds over the Gulf of California will generally remain light to gentle due to a weak pressure gradient for the next several days, with the exception of fresh nocturnal SW gap winds in the northern Gulf Thu night. A new set of long period SW swell will reach the southern Mexican offshore waters by Sat, but seas are expected to remain less than 8 ft. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Nocturnal offshore flow will pulse to fresh speeds in the Gulf of Papagayo for the next several days. The strongest winds will occur during the late night and early morning hours with the nocturnal drainage flow. Otherwise, fairly tranquil conditions will persist off Central America through the next several days under a weak pressure pattern. Gentle to moderate SW winds will prevail south of the monsoon trough this week. A new set of long period SW swell will reach the southern waters on Sat with seas likely building to 8 ft between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A broad high pressure ridge persists across the northern waters with an axis extending southeastward from near 30N140W to beyond the Revillagigedo Islands. Earlier scatterometer data showed generally moderate trade winds south of the ridge and west of 130W, with locally fresh winds associated with a surface trough located along 138W. This feature will continue supporting fresh winds and combined seas to 8 ft through Wed night as it tracks westward beyond 140W. Otherwise, little change in winds or seas is expected through Sun. A new set of long period SW swell will reach the far SW waters by Thu night, then propagate NE across the region through Sat. Seas are expected to build to 8 ft or greater just south of the Equator by Fri and persist through the weekend. No tropical cyclones are expected in the Eastern North Pacific basin for the next several days. $$ Reinhart