548 AXPZ20 KNHC 111421 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1347 UTC Tue Jun 11 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1420 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A weak tropical wave was repositioned to near 93W extending mainly south of 12N. The wave is only observable with the GFS and ECMWF 700 mb trough diagnostics. Scattered moderate and isolated convection is occurring within 180 nm of the wave north of 10N. A second weak tropical wave was repositioned to near 116W extending mainly south of 12N. The wave is only observable with the GFS and ECMWF 700 mb trough diagnostics. Widely scattered moderate convection is occurring within 60 nm of the wave from 04N to 06N. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from Costa Rica near 09N84W to 08W106W. The ITCZ extends from that point to 05N115W where it is broken by a tropical wave, then picks up again near 06N117W and goes beyond 06N140W. Scattered moderate strong convection is occurring within 120 nm south of the monsoon trough from 94W to 105W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Surface ridging over eastern Mexico combined with low pressure associated with the monsoon trough is forcing strong to near gale gap winds over the Gulf of Tehuantepec. This morning a ship in the Gulf near 13N reported NE winds of 25 kt. Forcing for this event will continue through early Wed, diminish Wed afternoon, then return Thu night into early Fri. Combined seas due to NE wind waves and S swell are likely producing peak waves of near 10 ft this morning. High pressure well NW of Baja California will maintain gentle to moderate NW winds over the offshore waters through the upcoming weekend. Winds over the Gulf of California will generally remain light to gentle due to a weak pressure gradient for the next several days, with the exception of fresh nocturnal SW gap winds in the northern Gulf Thu night. A new set of long period SW swell with moderate heights will reach the southern Mexican offshore waters beginning on Sat. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Nocturnal offshore flow will pulse to fresh speeds in the Gulf of Papagayo tonight into early Wed as winds increase over the western Caribbean Sea, then will pulse again Thu night through Sat. Otherwise, fairly tranquil conditions will persist off Central America through the next several days under a weak pressure pattern. A new set of long period SW swell with moderate heights will reach the southern waters beginning on Sat. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A broad high pressure ridge extends from near our NW border at 30N140W east-southeastward to 15N100W. The pressure gradient on the S side of the ridge is causing only gentle to fresh NE trade winds. A moderate N swell combined with the NE wind wave is producing a combined sea up to 8 ft near 13N133W. These enhanced seas should diminish by Thu. Otherwise, little change in winds or seas is expected through mid week. A new set of long period SW swell will reach the far SW waters by Friday, propagating northeastward across the region through at least Sat night. Seas are expected to build to 8 ft or greater just south of the Equator by Fri night. No tropical cyclones are expected in the Eastern North Pacific basin for the next several days, as the quiet start to the Eastern North Pacific season continues. $$ Landsea