000 AXPZ20 KNHC 110920 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Tue Jun 11 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave extends from the SW Caribbean Sea near the coast of Nicaragua, southward across eastern Costa Rica along 05N into the east Pacific, moving west at around 15 kt. Only isolated to scattered showers are noted. A tropical wave is along 103W/104W, moving west at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 05N to 07N between 98W and 106W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Panama near 08N78W to 08N90W to 10N102W to 08N108W. The ITCZ continues from 08N108W to 05N115W to 08N132W to 07N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 03N to 09N east of 81W, from 06N to 08N between 86W and 89W, from 11N to 15N between 87W and 99W, from 08N to 12N between 98W and 101W, and also from 04N to 08N between 133W and 138W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Strong to near gale gap winds will be over the Gulf of Tehuantepec through early Wed in response to a tight local pressure gradient. These winds will diminish Wed afternoon, returning Thu night into early Fri. Seas will build up to 9-11 ft during the strongest winds. Gentle to moderate NW winds prevail off the Baja California coast, with light to gentle winds elsewhere over the open waters off Mexico. Seas generally remain 4-6 ft across the region. Over the Gulf of California, light and variable winds persist with seas 3 ft or less. High pressure west of Baja California will maintain gentle to moderate NW winds over the offshore waters through the next several days. Freshening NW winds along the Baja California coast will produce fresh westerly gap winds over the northern Gulf of California Thu night and Fri night. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gentle to moderate SW winds continue across the forecast waters south of the monsoon trough, and light easterly winds prevail north of the monsoon trough. Earlier altimeter data across the offshore waters showed mainly 4-6 ft seas, with 5-7 ft between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands. Nocturnal off shore flow will pulse to fresh speeds in the Gulf of Papagayo tonight into early Wed as winds increase over the western Caribbean Sea, then will pulse again Thu night through Sat. Otherwise, little change in winds is expected through the next several days. A set of long period SW swell will arrive during the upcoming weekend, building seas between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A broad high pressure ridge extends across the northern waters southeastward to near the Revillagigedo Islands. Scatterometer data showed gentle to moderate winds north of 18N, with moderate to locally fresh trades south of 18N to the ITCZ. Seas are mainly 5-7 ft across the high seas domain. A trough is over the west- central waters south of 15N to the ITCZ along 133W, and a recent altimeter pass indicated seas of 7-8 ft in the vicinity of the trough with the aide of fresh trades to the east. The trough will continue westward reaching 140W by Wed, with associated higher winds and seas shifting west of the area Wed night. Otherwise, little change in winds or seas is expected through mid week. A new set of long period SW swell will reach the far southern waters by the end of the week, propagating northeast across the region through Sat night. Seas are expected to build to 8 ft or greater just south of the Equator by Fri night. $$ Lewitsky