000 AXPZ20 KNHC 102107 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1945 UTC Mon Jun 10 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2115 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave traverses Panama along 81W from 03N to beyond 09N, moving west at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 04N to 09N between 77W and 86W. A tropical wave is along 101W from 03N to 14N, moving west at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 04N to 14N between 95W and 107W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 08N78W to 09N83W to 09N100W. The ITCZ extends from 09N103W to 05N120W to 08N134W to 07N140W. Besides the convection mentioned in the tropical wave section, widely scattered moderate convection is from 04N to 08N between 108W and 118W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 04N to 13N between 128W and 133W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Gentle to moderate NW winds prevail off the Baja California coast with light to gentle winds elsewhere over the open waters off Mexico. Seas generally remain 4-6 ft across the region. Over the Gulf of California, light and variable winds persist with seas 3 ft or less. High pressure west of Baja California will maintain gentle to moderate NW winds over the offshore waters through the next several days. Freshening NW winds along the Baja California coast will produce fresh westerly gap winds over the northern Gulf of California Wed night through Fri, mainly at night. Elsewhere, locally fresh winds may pulse off Cabo San Lucas each late afternoon and evening for the next several days. Strong northerly gap winds will develop over the Gulf of Tehuantepec this evening as the local pressure gradient tightens in response to high pressure ridging over eastern Mexico. Winds will peak near 30 kt tonight, while seas will build up to 11 ft. Winds will diminish to 20 kt or less by Wed evening, then strengthen to 25 kt again Thu night into Fri. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gentle to moderate SW winds continue across the forecast waters south of the monsoon trough, and light easterly winds prevail north of the monsoon trough. Recent altimeter data across the offshore waters off Nicaragua and Costa Rica showed 4-6 ft seas. Farther south, seas are running 6-7 ft between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands. Nocturnal offshore flow will pulse to fresh speeds in the Gulf of Papagayo Tue evening and night as winds increase over the western Caribbean Sea. Otherwise, little change in winds is expected through the next several days. A new set of long period SW swell will arrive by the end of the week, building seas between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A high pressure ridge extends across the northern waters southeastward to near the Revillagigedo Islands. Earlier scatterometer data showed moderate N to NE winds prevail south of the ridge with locally fresh winds north of the ITCZ. Seas are generally running 5-7 ft across the high seas domain. Little change in winds or seas is expected through mid week. A new set of long period SW swell will reach the far southern waters on Thu and propagate NE across the region through Fri. Seas are expected to build to 8 ft or greater south of the Equator by Fri night. $$ Formosa