000 AXPZ20 KNHC 101512 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1512 UTC Mon Jun 10 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is near 79W over the Gulf of Panama, moving west at 15 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is from 05N to 09N east of 81W with additional convection inland. A tropical wave is near 99W, moving west at 10 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is from 11N to 14N between 95W and 100W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N86W to 10N97W. The ITCZ begins near 08N100W and continues to 05N118W to beyond 08N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted within 180 nm of the monsoon trough east of 91W. Scattered moderate convection is from 06N to 08N between 93W and 98W, within 180 nm north of the ITCZ between 100W and 103W, and within 180 nm north of the ITCZ between 128W and 133W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Gentle to moderate NW winds prevail off the Baja California coast this morning with light to gentle winds elsewhere over the open waters off Mexico. Seas generally remain 4-6 ft across the region per 13Z altimeter data. Over the Gulf of California, light and variable winds persist with seas 3 ft or less. High pressure west of Baja California will maintain gentle to moderate NW winds over the offshore waters through the next several days. Freshening NW winds along the Baja California coast will produce fresh westerly gap winds over the northern Gulf of California Wed night through Fri, mainly at night. Elsewhere, locally fresh winds may pulse off Cabo San Lucas each late afternoon and evening for the next several days. Strong northerly gap winds will develop over the Gulf of Tehuantepec this evening as the local pressure gradient tightens in response to high pressure ridging over eastern Mexico. Winds will peak near 30 kt Tue morning, while seas will build up to 10 ft. Winds will diminish to 20 kt or less by Wed afternoon, then strengthen again Thu night into Fri. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gentle to moderate SW winds continue across the forecast waters south of the monsoon trough, and light easterly winds prevail north of the monsoon trough. Recent altimeter data across the offshore waters off Nicaragua and Costa Rica showed 4-6 ft seas. Farther south, seas are running 6-7 ft between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands. Nocturnal offshore flow will pulse to fresh speeds in the Gulf of Papagayo beginning tonight as winds increase over the western Caribbean Sea. Otherwise, little change in winds is expected through the next several days. A new set of long period SW swell will arrive by the end of the week, building seas between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A high pressure ridge extends across the northern waters southeastward to near the Revillagigedo Islands. Earlier scatterometer data showed moderate N to NE winds prevail south of the ridge with locally fresh winds north of the ITCZ. Recent altimeter passes suggest that northerly swell over the far northern waters has subsided below 8 ft. Seas are generally running 5-7 ft across the high seas domain this morning. Little change in winds or seas is expected through mid week. A new set of long period SW swell will reach the far southern waters on Thu and propagate NE across the region through Fri. Seas are expected to build to 8 ft or greater south of the Equator by Fri night. $$ Reinhart