000 AXPZ20 KNHC 091605 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Sun Jun 9 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is analyzed along 94W, moving W 10-15 kt. Very active convection has flared up near this wave, described below, mainly from 06N to 10N between 91W and 97W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Panama near 08.5N78W to 13N92W to 06N110W. The ITCZ continues from 06N110W to 08N130W to 07N140W. Widely scattered to scattered moderate isolated strong convection was noted within 150 nm of the coast between 77W and 96W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is within 210 nm N and 240 nm S of trough between 88W and 117W. Scattered to numerous strong convection is noted from 05N to 09N between 131.5W and 143W ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Light to gentle NNW winds prevail off the coast of Baja California Norte this morning. Mainly gentle to moderate NW winds prevail elsewhere across the open forecast waters, with recent surface observations indicating locally fresh winds developing near the coast. Light winds prevail over the Gulf of California. Over the open waters off Mexico, seas are mainly in the 4-6 ft range, reaching 7-8 ft in N swell near and to the west of Guadalupe Island. Seas over the Gulf of California are 3 ft or less. High pressure west of Baja California will maintain gentle to locally moderate NW winds over the offshore waters through the next several days. Winds may briefly pulse to locally fresh off Cabo San Lucas each late afternoon and evening for the next several days. Seas will subside to 5-6 across the waters west of Guadalupe Island late today. Northerly gap winds are expected to develop over the Gulf of Tehuantepec Mon night as the local pressure gradient tightens, continuing until Wed afternoon, then returning Thu night. Peak winds to 30 kt are expected Tue morning, when seas will build up to 10 ft. Freshening NW winds along the Baja California coast will produce areas of westerly gap winds inside of the Gulf of California Tue through Fri. Some of these areas will increase to fresh to strong Thu night. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gentle to moderate S to SW wind flow is noted across the forecast waters S of 08N, with light flow N of 08N. Little change in these winds are expected through the next several days. Seas are in the 4-7 ft range, and will subside slightly through the early part of the week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure of 1031 mb centered well NW of the area near 41N133W extends a ridge SE to just S of the Revillagigedo Islands. Moderate to fresh N to NE winds prevail north of the ITCZ and west of 122W, with gentle to moderate winds east of 122W. Seas are in the 8-10 ft range in northerly swell N of 25N between 121W and 131W, and 5-7 ft elsewhere, except from 08N to 11N to the west of 134W where seas are reaching near 8 ft in mixed swell. The northerly swell will continue to bring seas of 8 ft or greater across the waters west of Guadalupe Island through early Mon, subsiding Mon afternoon. Farther south, southerly swell will continue dominating the waters east of 120W through the early part of the week. Recent altimeter data revealed seas to 8 ft as far north as 11N between 91W and 100W. Seas will subside to less than 8 ft later today. $$ Stripling