000 AXPZ20 KNHC 081633 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Sat Jun 8 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is moving westward across the far eastern tropical Pacific, extending southward from Guatemala and El Salvador along 89W-90W, moving W around 15 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection was noted within 120 nm of the Pacific coast in this vicinity from 87.5W and 96.5W, but has diminished in recent hours. Associated moderate to strong convection is also found south of the monsoon trough in this area described below. and from 13N to 15N between 91W and 94W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09.5N74W TO 09N86W TO 12N88W TO 07N109W. The ITCZ continues from 07N109W to 08N121W to beyond 06N140W. Scattered moderate to strong convection was noted from 04.5N to 09N between 87W and 111W, and within 90 nm either side of the ITCZ between 117W and 131W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Overnight scatterometer data showed gentle to moderate NW winds across the forecast waters of Baja California, except off the coast of Cabo San Lucas, where fresh to strong winds prevailed. Morning observations from Cabo San Lucas Marina show WNW winds increasing to 16 kt in the past 2 hours. Over the open waters off Mexico, seas are mainly in the 4-6 ft range, reaching 7-8 ft just west of Guadalupe Island, as new N swell is arriving there. Seas over the Gulf of California are 3 ft or less, except 3-5 ft between Las Tres Marias and San Jose del Cabo. High pressure west of Baja California will maintain gentle to locally moderate NW winds over the offshore waters through the weekend. Winds may briefly pulse to fresh off Cabo San Lucas each late afternoon and evening for the next several days. Fresh northerly swell will move across the Baja California Norte offshore waters today, and increase seas to 5-6 ft by Sun, except 6-9 ft far northern waters. Gentle westerly winds generally prevail across the remaining Mexican waters between Cabo Corrientes and the Tehuantepec region. New cross equatorial SSW swell arriving to the regional waters this morning will peak tonight, with seas reaching near 6 ft. Northerly gap winds are expected to develop over the Gulf of Tehuantepec late Mon as northerly flow develops across the Bay of Campeche and the local pressure gradient tightens. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Overnight scatterometer data indicated light to gentle SW monsoon flow across the forecast waters S of 07N, with light flow N of 07N. Seas this morning are 5-8 ft in new SSW swell S of 07N, and 5-6 ft N of 07N. Long period SSW swell will build modestly over the far southern waters through this evening before beginning to slowly diminish Sun through Mon. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure of 1031 mb centered well N of the area near 42N132W extends a ridge SE to just S of the Revillagigedo Islands. Moderate to fresh N to NE winds prevail over the waters N of 20N to the W of 120W, with seas in the 6-10 ft range in northerly swell. Gentle to moderate winds, with seas in the 4-7 ft range in mixed swell prevail elsewhere. The northerly swell will continue to bring seas of 8 ft or greater across the waters west of Guadalupe Island between 120W and 130W through this evening. Seas of 8 ft will reach as far south as 26N by tonight before subsiding Sun through Mon. Farther south, southerly swell will continue dominating the waters east of 120W through early next week. Overnight altimeter data revealed 8-9 ft seas reaching as far north as 06.5N between 91W and 103W. The swell will gradually subside tonight into early next week. $$ Stripling