000 AXPZ20 KNHC 072100 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2100 UTC Fri Jun 7 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 12N86W to 14N95W to 09N105W. The ITCZ continues from 09N105W to 06N112W to 09N130W to 08N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection was noted from 05N to 10N between 85W and 90W, from 03N to 07N between 96W and 118W, and from 03N to 09N between 118W and 130W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Latest scatterometer data indicate light to gentle winds prevail across the forecast waters, except off the coast of Cabo San Lucas, where gentle to moderate winds prevail. Over the open waters off Mexico, seas are in the 4-5 ft range, reaching near 7 ft west of Guadalupe Island. Seas over the Gulf of California are 3 ft or less. High pressure west of Baja California will maintain gentle to locally moderate NW winds over the offshore waters through the weekend. Winds may briefly pulse to fresh off Cabo San Lucas each late afternoon and evening for the next several days. Fresh northerly swell will reach the Baja California Norte offshore waters today, with seas expected to peak at 8-9 ft west of Guadalupe Island tonight, and 4-7 ft closer to the coast. Seas will then gradually subside this weekend and into early next week. Gap winds will strengthen over the Gulf of Tehuantepec early next week as the local pressure gradient tightens. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Latest surface observations indicate gentle to moderate SW monsoon flow persists across the forecast waters S of 07N, with light westerly flow N of 07N. Seas are in the 5-8 ft range S of 07N, and 4-5 ft N of 07N. A tropical wave over Central America extending southward into the waters offshore of Nicaragua will continue to shift further into the eastern Pacific waters the next several days. Weak low pressure may form along the tropical wave by early next week as the wave continues to slowly shift westward across the far eastern Pacific waters. Long period SW swell has propagated into the far southern waters. Seas have built to 8 ft between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands, and will briefly build to near 9 ft tonight before subsiding this weekend. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure of 1031 mb centered well N of the area near 41N136W extends a ridge SE to just S of the Revillagigedo Islands. Moderate to fresh NNE winds prevail over the waters N of 25N between 122W and 132W, with seas in the 7-9 ft range in northerly swell. Gentle to moderate winds, with seas in the 4-6 ft range prevail elsewhere. The northerly swell will continue to bring seas of 8 ft or greater across the waters west of Guadalupe Island between 120W and 130W, reaching as far south as 26N by Sat night before subsiding Sun through Mon. Farther south, southerly swell will continue dominating the waters east of 120W through early next week. Recent altimeter passes revealed 8-9 ft seas reaching as far as 04N between 93W and 120. The swell will gradually subside over the weekend and into early next week. $$ AL