000 AXPZ20 KNHC 071620 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Fri Jun 7 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 11N72W TO 10N87W TO 05.5N97W TO 07N101W TO 06.5N104W, then transitions to ITCZ, continuing on to 07N104W TO 06N120W TO 08N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is within 75 nm S of the monsoon trough between 84.5W and 88W, and within 120 nm S of the trough between 96W and 104W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is within 60 nm N and 120 nm S of the ITCZ between 104W and 128W. Lingering scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 04N to 07N between the coast of Colombia and 80.5W, and from 10N to 13.5N between 87.5W and 92W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 60 nm of the Mexican coast between 100W and 102.5W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Overnight scatterometer data indicated gentle southerly flow across the northern Gulf of California, while latest coastal observations indicate variable winds at less than 10 kt. Associated seas are assumed to be in the 1-3 ft range. Light to moderate winds mainly NW to W winds, and seas 3 ft or less, prevail over the remainder of the Gulf of California. Light to gentle winds, and seas in the 4-6 ft range, prevail over the open waters between Las Tres Marias and Cabo San Lucas. High pressure west of Baja California will maintain gentle to moderate NW winds over the offshore waters through the weekend. Winds may briefly pulse to fresh off Cabo San Lucas each late afternoon and evening for the next several days. Fresh northerly swell will reach the Baja California Norte offshore waters today, with seas expected to peak at 8-9 ft west of Guadalupe Island tonight, and 4-7 ft closer to the coast. Seas will then gradually subside this weekend and into early next week. Moderate to fresh northerly flow, occasionally fresh to strong, will develop offshore of the Gulf of Tehuantepec early next week as the local pressure gradient tightens. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Latest surface observations indicate gentle to moderate SW monsoon flow persists to the south of the monsoon trough, while generally light westerly winds prevail north of the monsoon trough. Seas are in the 5-8 ft range S of 07N, and 4-5 ft N of 07N. A tropical wave over Central America extending southward into the waters offshore of Costa Rica will shift further into the eastern Pacific waters later today. Weak low pressure may form along the tropical wave by early next week as the wave continues to slowly shift westward across the far eastern Pacific waters. New long period SW swell has propagated into the far southern waters. Seas have built to 8 ft between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands, and will briefly build to near 9 ft later today and tonight before subsiding this weekend. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A broad ridge extends from 1030 mb high pressure centered well north of the area near 41N139W southeastward to just south of the Revillagigedo Islands. Moderate to fresh NNE to NE winds prevail over the waters N of 25N between 122W and 132W, with seas in the 6-7 ft range. Gentle to moderate winds, with seas in the 4-6 ft range prevail elsewhere. Northerly swell will bring seas of 8 ft or greater across the waters west of Guadalupe Island between 120W and 130W later today, reaching as far south as 26N by Sat night before subsiding Sun through Mon. Farther south, southerly swell will continue dominating the waters east of 120W through early next week. Recent altimeter passes revealed 8-9 ft seas crossing the Equator. The swell will propagate northward today, with large areas of 8 ft seas reaching as far as 05N, between 80W and 120W. Wave heights will subside over the weekend and into early next week. $$ Stripling