000 AXPZ20 KNHC 070907 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Fri Jun 7 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N86W to 05N98W to 07N104W. The ITCZ continues from 07N104W to 06N120W to 08N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is from 07N to 11N between 83W and 87W. Scattered moderate convection is within 30 nm either side of the ITCZ between 111W and 122W, and also from 08N to 10N between 128W and 134W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is also from 03N to 09N within 75 nm of the coasts of Colombia and Panama, having developed over nearby land yesterday evening before propagating offshore. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is also from 09.5N to 12N between 122W and 125W where a weak low level trough is drifting westward. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Latest surface observations indicate moderate southerly flow across the northern Gulf of California, with seas in the 2-4 ft range. Light to moderate winds, and seas 2 ft or less, prevail over the remainder of the Gulf of California. Light to gentle winds, and seas in the 4-6 ft range, prevail over the open waters off Mexico. High pressure west of Baja California will maintain gentle to moderate NW winds over the offshore waters through the weekend. Winds may briefly pulse to fresh speeds off Cabo San Lucas for the next several days. A fresh set of NW swell will reach the Baja California Norte offshore waters today. Seas will peak around 9 ft west of Guadalupe Island tonight before gradually subsiding this weekend and into early next week. Moderate to fresh northerly flow, occasionally fresh to strong, will develop offshore of the Gulf of Tehuantepec early next week as the local pressure gradient tightens. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Latest surface observations indicate gentle to moderate SW monsoon flow persists to the south of the monsoon trough, while generally light winds prevail north of the monsoon trough. Seas are in the 5-8 ft range S of 07N, and 4-5 ft N of 07N. A tropical wave over the northwest Caribbean Sea extending across Central America will shift into the far eastern Pacific waters later today. Weak low pressure may form along the tropical wave by early next week as the wave continues to slowly shift westward across the far eastern Pacific waters. A set of long period SW swell has propagated into the southern waters. Seas have built to 8 ft between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands, and will further will build to near 9 ft later today and tonight before subsiding this weekend. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A ridge extends from 1032 mb high pressure centered well north of the area near 42N140W southwestward to near the Revillagigedo Islands. Moderate to fresh winds prevail over the waters N of 28N between 122W and 132W, with seas in the 6-7 ft range. Gentle to moderate winds, with seas in the 4-6 ft range prevail elsewhere. Northerly swell will bring seas of 8 ft or greater across the waters west of Guadalupe Island between 120W and 130W later today, reaching as far south as 26N by Sat night before subsiding Sun through Mon. Farther south, southerly swell will continue dominating the waters east of 120W through early next week. Recent altimeter passes revealed 8-9 ft seas reaching the Equator. The swell will propagate northward on Fri, with pockets of 8 ft seas reaching as far as 05N, between 80W and 120W. Wave heights will subside over the weekend and into early next week. $$ Lewitsky